Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 13 MNF Preview (Dec. 2nd)
Welcome to our Daily Newsletter! In today's edition, we preview the NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football game between the visiting Cleveland Browns and the home Denver Broncos. Denver are listed as 6.5 point home favorites while the game features a total of 41.5. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland seems to have found new life under Jameis Winston, and the team should be fully rested after a mini-bye having not played since Thursday November 21st when they upset the Pittsburgh Steelers. Denver has had their number in the past, leading the all-time series between these teams 25-7. This will definitely be an interesting stylistic match-up – with the Browns wanting to throw the ball and the Broncos being a good pass defense. Cleveland has also been increasing the usage of Nick Chubb, but he historically has fared much worse in negative game-scripts due to his lack of involvement in the passing game. Over 60% of the bets are on the over in this game, but it profiles more low-scoring in my opinion due to what each defense does in contrast to the opposing offense's strength.
With Cedric Tillman out, we can expect rookie Jamari Thrash to step into 3 WR sets. Jerry Jeudy is facing off with his former team, but will presumably see the majority of Pat Surtain’s shadow-coverage. This will loosen the spot for Elijah Moore and David Njoku across the middle of the defense and I would be buying into them as opposed to Jeudy if looking to bet on the Cleveland passing game. Thrash is someone that flashed in the pre-season and could be worth a dart throw.
Denver Broncos
Denver has been one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season and currently occupy the final wildcard spot in the AFC. Similar to the Chargers, they have benefited from an easy schedule currently holding no wins over teams in a play-off spot – note that the Buccaneers are 6-6 and tied for the division with the Falcons holding the tiebreaker. Bo Nix has played awesome and is neck-and-neck with Jayden Daniels in the ROY race in my opinion. That being said, his numbers take a huge hit when under pressure and that could spell trouble against the Browns. Cleveland ranks second-best in the NFL in pressure rate while Nix is a bottom-five QB in football when faced with pressure per PFF. Overall, I think the best way for the Broncos to attack this Cleveland defense is on the ground – keeping Myles Garrett at bay. Cleveland has a good run defense on paper, but it's taken a huge hit with LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah off the field. Denver’s RB rotation has been a complete mystery game to game this season, but I would expect one of the RBs to have a big game tonight. I like the idea of betting on rookie Audric Estime to lead the game in rushing yards at long odds.
Touchdown Prediction: DEN or CLE DST
This game just has the feel of a defensive touchdown. As noted above, both defenses match-up extremely well vs the offenses and that’s part of why I lean towards the under in this game. Winston is known for throwing interceptions as much as anything else while the Browns certainly have the playmakers on that side of the ball to cause turnovers as well. These are long odds bets, and I don’t often recommend a defensive touchdown but if there was ever a game to correctly predict one I think it would be tonight.
Written by Ben Hossler