Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 14 MNF Preview (Dec. 9th)
Welcome to our daily newsletter! Tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup features the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Dallas Cowboys in a game that was though to have big implications when the schedule was set, but hasn't panned out that way. The Bengals are favored by 4.5 points on the road in Dallas, while the total is set at a lofty 50 points. The game will be broadcast on ESPN and kick-off is set for 8:15 ET. Let's dive in!
Cincinnati Bengals
Tonight features a match-up of underwhelming teams that typically would have been flexed out of this primetime spot. However, given that this game will be alt-cast featuring the Simpsons Funday Football broadcast it was too late to switch the game due to the amount of work that needs to be done for the animation. So, we are awarded two non-playoff teams in primetime with the public heavily backing the Bengals. Over 77% of the bets are on Cincinnati to cover the spread while the public loves the over as well with over 75% of the bets coming there.
Cincinnati has skewed very pass–heavy since the start of November now that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy on the field together. Their games are averaging over 55 points scored in each of those five games while Joe Burrow is averaging over 40 pass attempts over that stretch. The main concern tonight is that this Dallas defense ranks number one in football in pressure%, while Burrow will once again be missing his starting LT Orlando Brown Jr. Burrow and the offensive line will need to be able to handle that incoming pressure if they want to have success offensively. The good news is that Burrow has always succeeded under pressure in his career – and once again ranks top-five in YPA under pressure this season. I don’t think Dallas has the guys on the back-end right now to contain Chase/Higgins and I could see another big Burrow game on the horizon tonight.
Dallas Cowboys
On the Cowboys side of the ball, it’s another game of Cooper Rush which can be a mixed bag when it comes to results. Metrically, Rush has been one of the worst QBs in football this season but can get carried to decent box score results by big-time playmakers such as CeeDee Lamb. Cincinnati’s defense has been horrific as of late, meaning something will have to give one way or the other tonight. Cincy is allowing the sixth-most Net Yards Gained per Pass Attempt per Pro Football Reference, but Rush is not someone that averages a high YPA. He passes more in the intermediate and relies on his playmakers to rack up yards after the catch. It’s insane how bad the Bengals pass defense has been, but I’m just not sure I trust Rush to really beat them. I’m certainly interested in CeeDee Lamb props given the match-up, but I think overall I would lean towards the under on the game total and hope that the Cowboys offense disappoints as a whole.
Touchdown Prediction: Tee Higgins
Sticking with the theme of Burrow having a big game, I’m siding with Higgins to find the end zone on Monday night. Higgins has always been known as a TD scorer, and has three touchdowns in his last three games since returning from injury. This is also a narrative based play for the remainder of the season as well, with Higgins needing a new contract after this season. He is essentially auditioning for that contract for whoever signs him. It’s a great match-up for him on-paper and Dallas has struggled with bigger bodied receivers in the past.
Written by Ben Hossler