Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 14 TNF Preview (Dec. 5th)
Welcome to our daily newsletter! Today, we’re diving into the exciting NFC North clash between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. We’ll break down key matchups, player insights, and how injuries could impact the outcome. Detroit comes into this game favored by 3.5 points at home over the visiting Packers while the total is installed at 51.5 points. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on Prime Video.
Green Bay Packers
We have a massive divisional game on tap tonight between the Packers and Lions. Detroit paces the highly competitive NFC North with an 11-1 record while the Packers aren’t far behind at 9-3. Over 64% of the bets are on the Lions to cover at home, which isn’t surprising given that they have been one of the most public and profitable teams all season. Green Bay comes into this game having won as touchdown underdogs the last time they were in Ford Field – defeating the Lions 29-22 on Thanksgiving Day 2023. Detroit is EXTREMELY banged up on defense, and I’m wondering if it’s getting to the point where it will be hard to overcome every single game when playing quality opponents. DET has a league-high 13 defensive players on IR and will also be missing three defensive lineman for this one. The Lions have boasted one of the best run-defenses in football since the start of last season – but I simply can’t project that here with guys like DJ Reader and Malcolm Rodriguez out due to injury. Green Bay has found success feeding Josh Jacobs in recent weeks and I would expect another heavy workload tonight. I also like the spot for Jayden Reed – who is fresh off a 100 yard game against the Lions in their meeting earlier this season. Despite how banged up DET is on the defensive side of the ball, they will get back Carlton Davis at CB for this one which should, if anything, funnel even more usage to the middle of the field. Chicago absolutely picked apart the Lions across the middle in the second half of last week, and that is where Reed can really get loose and operate in the slot. Reed has failed to exceed 26 receiving yards in each of his last three games…yet, his prop is listed at 62.5 yards tonight. This is telling to me, and I think we could see a big performance from him in primetime.
Detroit Lions
As for the home team, we kind of know what to expect when it comes to their offense. Jared Goff has been one of the most efficient QBs in football this season – but hasn’t put up manybig fantasy games despite his high league rankings in both YPA and completion%. This is the highest scoring offense on a per drive basis and that’s headlined by their backfield consisting of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In addition to the defensive injuries, Detroit will also be missing their starting LT Taylor Decker for this contest. Green Bay is middle of the pack when it comes to generating pressure this season, but the loss of Decker is a net negative for the entire offense. Overall, I expect this to be a high scoring game given the total of 51.5 and we know where the scoring comes from on this side of the ball. I think the defensive injuries could be too much to overcome here, and would lean towards the Packers side of this game.
Touchdown Prediction: Jayden Reed
I was going to go with Josh Jacobs in this section, but seeing as his implied odds are around -150 that seems a bit too easy to pin my name to. Enter: Jayden Reed who has underwhelmed this season in the receiving departments but still managed six touchdowns. As noted above, he has the best on-paper match-up of all the Packers receivers and comes into this contest in good form with three touchdowns in his last four games. We’ve seen his involvement as a rusher grow as well, and that makes a difference especially when you factor in that he’s taken a jet sweep 33 yards to the house once already this season. I think this will be a high-scoring game and we can comfortably project multiple touchdowns from both sides of the ball – with Reed being my favorite option to find the end zone at his odds.
Written by Ben Hossler