Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 15 TNF Preview (Dec. 12th)
NFL Week 15 begins on Thursday Night with one of the classic new school rivalries between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are installed as three point home favorites in this spot, with tons of offense projected given the loft 49.5 point total. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on Prime Video. Let's dive into the breakdown...
Los Angeles Rams
We have an absolutely banger Thursday night game tonight, with the 17th meeting between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. Shanahan owns a 10-6 record against McVay straight up, however McVay has won the last two – both games coming in the year 2024. The Rams have been playing well since getting healthier, they’ve won three of their last four and sit one game behind Seattle for the divisional race. Despite winning their last two match-ups against the 49ers, the Rams have yet to have both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua fully healthy for one of these games. I expect that passing attack to be on full display tonight, especially against a defense missing Nick Bosa. The public is backing the over tonight heavily with over 65% of bets coming in on that side. It’s clear that the shootouts we’ve seen from these teams hold firm in people’s minds. The public also loves the Rams in this spot with 60% of the spread tickets on Los Angeles. This is interesting, given that just 52% of the money is on the Rams and that’s caused some reverse line movement. San Francisco opened at -2.5 and has since moved to the 3 despite not being the public side.
While I expect those pass catchers for the Rams to continue their hot streak, I think the run game has the best match-up on paper. San Francisco’s run defense has struggled in recent weeks and we know the Rams have a potent rushing attack with Kyren Williams and now Blake Corum getting more involved.
San Francisco 49ers
I’m on the 49ers in this game, and I think it’s a strong buy-low spot. First of all, this team has gotten extremely unlucky this season especially when it comes to injuries. They’re still banged up tonight, but their offensive line has performed well in the absence of Trent Williams. I have more concerns about the defense, but in a high total game maybe they can overcome that with a big offensive performance and one or two timely stops on defense. I don’t think the recent play from San Francisco is an accurate representation of their overall value. They blew a late lead to the Seattle Seahawks, who have been on an absolute tear. They lost on the road in Green Bay, but Brock Purdy wasn’t even active in that game. They then lost on the road in Buffalo in a nightmare spot with cold weather in snow. I feel as if there’s a lot of noise in these recent results, and I expect the offense to find success here.
I think they will make it a point to get Deebo Samuel going tonight, due to his recent comments on social media. Multiple members of the team mentioned this to the media this week and I’m expecting a pass-centric game plan with the RB room in disarray. George Kittle is healthy, Jauan Jennings is emerging and everything is set up for a big Brock Purdy performance tonight. For what it’s worth, he saw them once this season and posted nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game.
Touchdown Prediction: Deebo Samuel
On top of this being a huge narrative play, the man is simply due to find the end zone. He’s been heavily involved in the red zone in Christian McCaffrey’s absence, but has just yet to break the seal. He has just two total touchdowns this season — one through the air and one on the ground – and I’m backing that to change tonight.
Written by Ben Hossler