Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 16 Saturday Preview (Dec. 20th)
Welcome to our daily newsletter! In today's edition, we preview the NFL Week 16 Saturday slate of games. We are awarded a double-header on Saturday afternoon with the first game kicking off at 1 ET and the second game following immediately after at 4:30 ET. Let's dive in...
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Saturday slate begins with the Super Bowl champions hosting the Texans who have severely underwhelmed compared to expectations coming into the season. Houston has a firm lead on their division so that’s not to say they’re a bad team at all, but after the way CJ Stroud played as a rookie this year has not gone as planned. Kansas City is installed as 3.5 point favorites in this game, with a relatively low 41.5 point total.
The key to this game is clearly going to be the health of Patrick Mahomes. He left last week vs the Browns due to an ankle injury and was expected to miss this game immediately following the end of that contest. As the week went on, he practiced in “full” and is good to go for this game. I’m not sure if he’s that close to 100% here and we probably won’t know until the game begins and we see him in action. Houston is very good at generating pressure, and what makes Mahomes so elite is his ability to move and navigate the pocket and avoid sacks. There’s also a chance that he inherited Tom Brady’s voodoo magic, and he miraculously healed that quick.
Given the unknown true status of Mahomes and the shape of these teams I would say I expect a low scoring game. Kansas City and the under has been a trend over the last two months, though this is about as low as you can get for a total with competent QB play. KC always seems to win games no matter the circumstance and that probably continues here as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
This game has a wider spread, with the Ravens favored by 6.5 points but it also has the higher total (44.5) and will be a more fun game in my opinion. Lamar Jackson is 1-4 in his career straight up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they seem to be the one team that has been able to consistently contain him. On top of that, Mike Tomlin has been elite as an underdog in his career especially against divisional opponents and I think this is a good time to buy low on the Steelers after the Eagles handled them a week ago. The public is buying into that narrative as well, with over 55% of the spread tickets coming in on the Steelers.
Given the lack of success Jackson has had against this team, I find it hard to single out Ravens props. Meanwhile George Pickens is still out for Pittsburgh and that affects not only their passing game but the offense as a whole. Najee Harris has been extremely game-script dependent this season, but I think they’re going to want to try and establish the run in this spot. This is a classic late-season, AFC North game and Harris has averaged just under 18 carries per game against Baltimore in his career. Furthermore, he’s averaged 18 carries per game in 21 career games coming on December 1st or later.
Touchdown Prediction: Travis Kelce
This used to be a chalk pick, but Kelce hasn’t scored since November 10th and has just two receiving touchdowns this season. Kelce is just one touchdown away from breaking the franchise record for touchdowns held by Tony Gonzalez. It’s only a matter of time before he finally steals the crown, and it would be fitting for it to come at home in front of the Kansas City crowd. Houston has been stingy against tight ends this season, but we just need one red zone target to go our way to cash this. Despite a down season, he still ranks top-five overall in targets inside the ten yard line and I’m backing him to end the drought and break the franchise record on Saturday.
Written by Ben Hossler