Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 16 TNF Preview (Dec.19th)
Week 16 and the fantasy football semi-finals begin on Thursday night with the Denver Broncos on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles is installed as 2.5 point home favorites in this one with a relatively low total of 41.5. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast exclusively on Prime Video.
Denver Broncos
We have a match-up between two play-off teams tonight with the Broncos traveling to LA to face off with the Chargers. This is an interesting stylistic match-up as well – the Broncos are a pass-heavy offense and a man-heavy defense whereas the Chargers are a run-first offense and a zone-heavy defense. Bo Nix comes into tonight top-five in the NFL in pass attempts, but will be facing off with a strong Chargers defense. He has been much better against man than zone this season, and ranks as a bottom-seven QB against the coverage split in terms of Success Rate. The total on this game isn’t very high, and I could see it being a low scoring game given Nix’s struggles and with how good Denver has been on defense. They’ve been one of the best defenses in the league down the stretch and this game did go under the total of 41 points in their first meeting with a final score of 23-16 in favor of the Chargers. Nix had a great game running the football in that contest and I would look for that to be a big angle in tonight’s game as well.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are a team that I think is good, but have been on the right side of good fortune a good amount of times this season. I’ve been waiting for their luck to run out for what feels like weeks, and that finally took effect last week with the Buccaneers smoking them 40-17. JK Dobbins was an X-Factor for them in these teams first meeting rushing for over 90 yards and a touchdown. They haven’t gotten much from Gus Edwards or Kimani Vidal in his absence, and they’re going to need one of them to step up if they want to cover that spread tonight. My bet would be on Vidal, who I think is the better player than Edwards at this point in time. Given how good this Broncos secondary has played, running on them is more advantageous than throwing. When they do throw, it will likely be to star Rookie Ladd McConkey who continues to impress. His over 5.5 receptions has been a staple bet for me since he emerged as the teams top target and I would be comfortable taking that line again tonight.
For what it’s worth, the public is pretty split on this game with the Chargers getting more ML tickets, but the Broncos getting more action to cover the spread.
Touchdown Prediction: Marvin Mims
It’s been a few games since we’ve taken a long odds touchdown pick, and we just might be due to hit one. Mims is someone that I was very high on coming out of Oklahoma, and after essentially a lost rookie season he has started to ascend as of late. After failing to top three targets in a game, he’s quietly seen 4+ in four of his last five games. We know he has big play ability as evidenced by his 90 yard house call against the Browns, and he also presents the best option on paper. As noted above, the Chargers play very heavy zone-coverage. Mims leads the team in both YPRR and target% against zone, even coming in above Courtland Sutton. Furthermore, he returns kicks which gives us a double-dip chance at a touchdown. I think he will continue to break out as we approach the play-off and I love the on-paper match-up for him tonight.
Written by Ben Hossler