Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 17 MNF Preview (Dec. 30th)
Week 17 wraps up with a high-scoring affair forecasted between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. The total for this one sits at a loft 50.5 while the visiting Lions are favored by 3.5 points. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. Let's dive in...
Detroit Lions
We have an absolute banger of a game to close out the Week 17 slate – with the Lions traveling cross country to San Francisco to face off with the 49ers. This is essentially a meaningless game for Detroit – they will battle the Vikings for the number one seed and divisional crown next Sunday night regardless of the outcome of this game. That being said, Dan Campbell was adamant that everyone that’s available would play here and they are coming into tonight with one goal in mind: winning. This is a revenge spot for the Lions, who want to avenge their loss in San Francisco in last year’s NFC Championship game. This is quite a different 49ers team than they faced then, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Detroit play with their food if awarded the opportunity.
The biggest takeaways for me here are how good this Lions team has been ATS. They are hitting nearly 70% ATS under Dan Campbell – and have been arguably the best ATS team we’ve seen in the last 15 years. They are often very public because of this and the team’s popularity, and that’s no different tonight with over 90% of the spread and ML tickets backing the favorites.
Overall, Detroit is coming into this one heavily motivated and I would back them to cover if forced to pick a side.
San Francisco 49ers
It’s really tough to expect much from this 49ers team at this point in the season, with no Trent Williams, but if there was a spot for success it’s this one. Detroit has been extremely banged up on defense for the majority of the season, and that’s only amplified since Thanksgiving Day. They’ve allowed the 7th highest Yards per Play in the NFL this season and are fresh off allowing over 400 yards of offense to the lowly Chicago Bears. Brock Purdy has had his fair share of struggles, but this is a spot where on paper we should expect him to find success throwing the football.
With the total set at 50.5, I think we should see plenty of offense on both sides. Kyle Shanahan has struggled against good teams with Purdy as his QB as of late. Since the end of 2023 – Purdy is just 1-8 ATS against teams with a winning record. Combining that with how good Dan Campbell has been ATS it’s really hard to paint a clear picture for San Francisco tonight. My favorite way to attack this game would be to take the 49ers team total over 23.5 at plus money.
Touchdown Prediction: George Kittle
Kittle is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career, bringing 68 catches for 976 yards and 8 TDs to the field tonight. As noted above, this Lions defense is so banged up that it’s hard to imagine them not giving up offensive production to the 49ers. They have been great against the run this season, but have particularly struggled against the pass especially with these injuries mounting up. Teams have thrown vs Detroit at a top-five rate this season and I expect the 49ers to follow suit especially with question marks in their backfield. Kittle is involved in the red zone, and I’m looking for him to find the end zone again on Monday night.
Written by Ben Hossler