Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 17 Saturday Preview (Dec. 27th)

Welcome to our daily newsletter! Today, we’re breaking down three crucial NFL matchups with significant playoff implications. The Chargers look to secure their spot in the postseason as they face the Patriots, while the Bengals and Broncos battle for survival. Meanwhile, the Rams aim to lock in a playoff berth with a win over the struggling Cardinals. Let's dive into the games and my favorite betting angles...

Chargers @ Patriots 

Saturday begins with the Chargers flying cross country to New England to face-off with the Patriots. This is a massive game for Los Angeles, as a win would clinch them a spot in the play-offs in Jim Harbaugh’s first campaign as their Head Coach. It’s also a fantastic spot for the Chargers offense on paper. Not only are they getting a key piece back in JK Dobbins – but Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey should be able to cook this Patriots defense. New England has been a horrific pass defense down the stretch of the season, and they play heavy man-coverage. Herbert has excelled greatly at times in his career against man, as well as McConkey. I’ve noted several times on stream this season that it’s impossible to man up McConkey due to his quickness and route-running ability. He’s been one of the best four WRs in football this season in YPRR in that coverage split. I’ve been regularly betting his over 5.5 receptions and will do so once again this week as my favorite play on the slate. You can consider his yardage overs as well. 

On the Patriots side, they continue to lose games due to lack of depth but one thing is certain: they’ve found a QB in Drake Maye. I’ve been very impressed with what I’ve seen from him and I’m fairly certain he would be the second pick off the board if the league redrafted this past year's NFL draft. Los Angeles’ defense has been lackluster in recent weeks and I wouldn’t be shocked to see some success from Maye especially early in the game given that it’s an early start time for a west coast team. Ultimately, I expect the Chargers to win the game but Maye having a good game especially with his legs is on my radar. 

Broncos @ Bengals 

The second game of the day is even bigger, with the Broncos and Bengals both fighting for a spot in the play-offs. Cincinnati seemed essentially dead a few weeks ago, but their path remains very much alive with a win over one of the teams in front of them in Denver. Joe Burrow is having an MVP-level season statistically while Ja’Marr Chase is chasing the receiving Triple Crown, making it pretty insane that this team is as far out of the race as they are right now. 

I’ve gone back and forth on my prediction for this game. Cincinnati should be better than they are, but they’ve been terrible in close games this season (coaching) and it’s impossible to trust their defense. A big factor here will be if they can get to Bo Nix. They rank middle of the pack in most pressure numbers – while Bo Nix has as severe splits when under pressure vs a clean pocket as you’ll find in the NFL. Whether or not they can get consistent pressure throughout the game is going to be the difference in my opinion especially with how bad the Broncos have been running the ball. Even against a good defense, I trust the Bengals to put up enough points to win on offense – the defensive effort will tell the final story. 

It’s tough to lay more than a FG with this Bengals team, and the public is on them here with 60% of the spread tickets on the home team. I’m expecting another big game from Burrow/Chase – while I would be looking at Marvin Mims props once again for the Broncos. 

Cardinals @ Rams 

And the nightcap brings us another team in search of a play-off spot, with the Rams securing their trip to the postseason with a win over the Cardinals. 

This game is the biggest spread on the slate with the Rams favored by 6.5, and it’s also the lone divisional match-up. Los Angeles looked completely dead to start the season, and rumors were already swirling again wondering if it would be McVay’s final season. They have rallied since getting healthy, and seem ready to lock in that play-off spot on Saturday night. McVay has completely dominated the NFC West outside of the 49ers. He owns a 12-3 record against Arizona, with one of the Cardinals wins coming earlier this season. 

Arizona looked primed for a shot at this divisional crown, but they’ve slipped as of late and lost four of their last five games. I don’t think you can pick against the Rams with how they’ve been playing, but I also would likely pass on that 6.5 point spread number. I’m expecting another big game from Matthew Stafford and could see Blake Corum scoring his first NFL touchdown here as well.

Written by Ben Hossler