Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 17 TNF Preview (Dec. 26th)
Week 17 continues on Thursday night with an NFC match-up between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. Seattle are installed as 4.5 point road favorites, and are still alive and fighting for a play-off spot. There is a slight chance of rain in the forecast, and the total is set at 42.5. Let’s dive into the game…
Seattle Seahawks
I’m back after a short hiatus while I was on my deathbed sick, and I couldn’t be more excited to break down this game. We are nearing the end of the 2024 NFL season, which means these last two weeks there will be plenty of games where one team is motivated and one is not. This falls under that category, with the Seahawks fighting for their playoff lives while the Bears are eliminated. The public loves Seattle tonight, with over 80% of the ML and spread tickets coming in on the road team. This is no shocker, the Bears have looked completely dead as of late and notably haven’t won a game since October 13th. Their defense has fallen off a cliff, and this is a great match-up for the Hawks offense. When the season began, Chicago was playing well in the secondary and they profiled more as a run-funnel. That has not held true since their bye week. Their pass defense has plummeted and they now rank second-worst in football in Net Yards Gained per Pass Attempt per Pro Football Reference. Geno Smith and his pass catchers should have a big game here and I would expect that to be a big part of the game-plan with Kenneth Walker out and Zach Charbonnet banged up. We have targeted the Bears in the slot all season – and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been one of the premier slot receivers in football. He continues to fully ascend in this offense, and I would consider him my favorite Seahawk for prop bets to target on Thursday.
Chicago Bears
As I noted above, the Bears have been completely dead in real life for over a month but that hasn’t been the case for fantasy football or sports betting. Caleb Williams has been pretty good from a fantasy perspective, as well as his receivers. It all comes down to how they game plan on offense for this one. If they take notes from the Vikings last week I think they can have success. Seattle has been much better vs the run since their bye week, which is why I think it’s better to target them through the air. Unlike the Bears, they’ve been better against slot WRs compared to outside which is better for DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Keenan Allen leads the NFL in targets since Shane Waldron was fired, and he is coming off another huge game last weekend. This could be a good time to fade him given the recency bias and match-up in the slot while we load up on Moore/Odunze. I don’t have a ton of faith in the run game here, but you can consider D’Andre Swift receiving yards for prop parlays.
Overall, I agree with the public here and expect Seattle to win and cover.
Touchdown Prediction: Rome Odunze
If you’ve read any of my content this season, I’ve written quite a bit about Odunze. I have forecasted a late season break-out for him multiple times, and while that hasn’t exactly panned out, it’s not as bad as you’d think. The role is very much there, and him having over 700 receiving yards is pretty impressive considering he missed some time and it’s felt as if he hasn’t done much on the surface. He has seen a spike in usage since the new OC came in, with two of his three touchdowns coming over the last three games. More importantly, his red zone role has been incredible. Odunze quietly ranks seventh in the NFL in targets inside the 20 – ahead of guys like Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. He also has been targeting heavily in the end zone – with 10 targets coming there over the last five games. Overall, the way to beat Seattle has been deep down the field – a plan that was executed beautifully by the Minnesota Vikings last week. Deep balls is where Odunze can really thrive, and he is my pick to find the end zone on Thursday night.
Written by Ben Hossler