Best NFL Bets for Week 10: Data-Driven NFL Picks

Leg 1: Los Angeles Chargers ML -360

We cashed last week's parlay, while using this NFL dataspace to identify some key statistical differences. I’m once again looking at Yards per Play and can see a nice positive difference in favor of the Los Angeles Chargers. LAC is averaging 5.3 yards per play this season compared to 4.7 for the Tennessee Titans. That 5.3 number is trending up as well, with the team skewing much more pass-heavy in recent weeks. On top of being at home, they have one of the best match-ups on the board against the returning Will Levis. Los Angeles has beat up on bad teams this season and I’m expecting more of the same this weekend.

Leg 2: Atlanta Falcons ML -196

Atlanta is on the road, which is always tough when facing a divisional opponent, but I like what I see. They’re averaging 6.0 yards per play this season compared to 5.3 for the Saints – while the Saints continue to be banged up and are thin in the secondary after trading Marshon Lattimore this past week. The offense will be centered around Alvin Kamara in this game with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both out – and while it should be a close game I will lean towards the Falcons who are better top to bottom.

Leg 3: Justin Herbert 200+ Passing Yards -280

As I noted above, the Chargers have skewed very pass-heavy over the last month with Justin Herbert throwing the ball 30+ times in three of the last four games. He’s averaging 250+ yards over those four games as well and has a positive match-up on paper with the Titans missing their top CB.