Best NFL Bets for Week 11: Data-Driven NFL Parlay Picks
As the NFL season progresses into Week 11, playoff races are intensifying, and motivation is becoming a crucial factor in some key matchups. This week, we’re targeting a three-leg parlay that combines team dynamics, matchups, and a player prop for a potentially profitable outcome. Let’s dive into the details and break down why these picks stand out as strong betting opportunities.
Leg 1: Miami Dolphins ML -340
We are 1-1 on parlays and this week we will be locking in another three leg at +133 odds. As we head into the latter parts of the season, “motivation” is a big part of some of these games and this is a prime example. That’s not to say every team isn’t motivated to win, they are, but as we progress through November play-off scenarios take shape and one of these teams have a clearer path to the wildcard round – the Miami Dolphins. Despite a 3-6 record, the Dolphins still hold over a 10% chance to make the playoffs and that number rises with a win this weekend. Las Vegas is the much worse team, and has to travel cross-country for an early window start time which is always something I’m willing to bet against. Miami has scored 27, 27 and 23 points in their games since Tua Tagovailoa returned to action and I don’t think the Raiders can keep pace offensively. Miami is coming off a huge win over the Rams, and I’m comfortable backing them to rack up another win on Sunday.
Leg 2: San Francisco ML -290
Sticking with the theme of “motivation” both of these teams are fighting for a play-off spot and are on the outside looking in currently. While both teams are motivated to get into the play-offs, the situation is much different for the San Francisco 49ers coming off a Super Bowl appearance last season. This team is finally healthy – with McCaffrey back in action and a full complement of weapons for Brock Purdy outside of Brandon Aiyuk. San Francisco is at home, and hold a distinct edge in Yards per Play at 6.6 compared to the Seahawks 5.7 mark per this NFL Dataspace. Furthermore, Geno Smith has performed significantly worse outdoors vs indoors in his career and I’m completely fine fading him in a tough road match-up.
Leg 3: Christian McCaffrey ATD -220
This correlates with our San Francisco pick – and I’m backing CMC to find the end zone for the first time this season. McCaffrey just returned last week, and saw no limitations handling 18 touches in a win over the Buccaneers. He also played nearly 90% of the offensive snaps. I would expect that usage to be sticky heading into Week 11 and also expect McCaffrey to see more red-zone involvement on Sunday afternoon.
Written by Ben Hossler