Best NFL Bets for Week 12: Data-Driven NFL Parlay Picks
Welcome to our daily newsletter! In today’s edition, we’re bringing you a winning Week 12 NFL parlay with key picks to help you make informed bets.
Washington Commanders ML -560
Typically, I would look to avoid massive NFL favorites but I’m willing to dismiss that rule in Week 12 with the Commanders. Washington has the biggest edge to win in our NFL Survivor Pool dataspace – and holds a massive edge in Yards per Play at 5.9 compared to the Cowboys 4.9. Dallas is still extremely banged up on offense, and will once again be sending Cooper Rush in place of Dak Prescott. Washington has hit a rough patch since catching that hail mary against the Bears, but this is a perfect get-right spot at home.
Brian Robinson ATD -145
Last week, we went with a correlated parlay and I’m going to stick with that theme this week. Robinson is back healthy for the Commanders, and he’s been a force when active this season scoring seven touchdowns in eight games. Despite missing time, Robinson ranks sixth in the NFL with 18 carries inside the 10 yard-line this season and that role can be amplified with how banged up Jayden Daniels has been. Given his rib injury, they’ve been more inclined to feed Robinson in the red zone and I’m expecting him to get multiple cracks at a TD against a bad Dallas run defense.
Miami Dolphins ML -375
Miami was featured in our parlay last week, citing that they’ll be playing extremely motivated football down the stretch in an attempt to make the play-offs. That holds true again in Week 12, with the rival New England Patriots coming to town. New England seems to have found their franchise QB in Drake Maye, but that has yet to translate to winning football and that’s why they find themselves as touchdown dogs on the road. This is one of the higher totaled games of the week, so I am expecting points to be scored on both sides. New England features a bottom-three pass defense per DVOA and that will ultimately be the difference in favor of Miami in my opinion.
Tyreek Hill ATD +110
Sticking with the correlation, we will add in a Dolphins player to score and I’m going with Tyreek Hill. As noted above, New England has been battered through the air recently and just allowed four passing touchdowns to Matthew Stafford in Week 11. Their best CB, Christian Gonzalez, looks unlikely to play in this game which increased my interest in the Dolphins passing attack. Hill has scored in two of his last three games against the Patriots – while I struggle to see how they slow him down without Gonzalez.
Total: 4 Leg Parlay +363
Written by Ben Hossler