Best NFL Bets for Week 9: Data-Driven NFL Picks

Leg 1: Cincinnati Bengals ML -330

Cincinnati is in must-win territory, coming into this week with just a 3-5 record. This is one of the softest get-right spots you could have, however, against the Gardner Minshew-led Las Vegas Raiders. As you can see in our NFL Team Data here – Cincinnati carries a clear edge in yards per play at 5.7 compared to 4.7 for the Raiders. It’s also a good match-up for Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game. Las Vegas is bottom-five in the NFL in pressure% vs opposing QBs, and I think Burrow will have time to throw on Sunday which is a big help. Overall, I’ll back the clearly better home team who is in a high motivation spot.

Leg 2: Washington Commanders ML -200

Washington just continues to win games, and at some point it might not be beginners luck any longer for Jayden Daniels. They escaped with a win on a Hail Mary last week, and find themselves in a winnable road game in Week 9 against the New York Giants. Similarly to the CIN/LV match-up – the Commanders have a monster edge in yards per play at 6.3 on the season compared to the 4.7 mark for the Giants. The Daniel Jones experiment hasn’t panned out, and the Giants continually shoot themselves in the foot with penalties in turnovers. I was hesitant to believe that the Commanders are for real, but at some point I can’t question the magic and think they can get it done again this week in a divisional match-up.

Leg 3: Ja’Marr Chase 5+ Receptions -440

Our last leg correlates with the Bengals ML. Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in touchdowns through eight weeks, but also ranks fourth-overall in receptions. He has continually been fed without Tee Higgins in the lineup – with Higgins out again this week I’m expecting more of the same in a strong on-paper match-up against the Raiders secondary. Chase saw 30% of the team's targets sans Higgins in Week 8 – which should set him up for 10+ again here.