Daily Newsletter: NBA Cup Preview for Tuesday Nov. 19th.
Day three of the NBA Cup is upon us with an enticing six game slate across the NBA. Group standings are starting to take shape and we have an early Game of the Year candidate on tap with the 15-0 Cleveland Cavaliers heading into a hostile TD Garden to face off with the defending Champion Boston Celtics.
Last week, I wrote a full NBA Cup preview and highlighted my favorite pre-tournament betting angles. You can read that preview here. Below I will provide a brief recap of where our pre-tourney picks stand before dissecting tonight’s slate. Let’s get into it…
NBA Cup Pre-Tournament Picks
Indiana Pacers to win East Group B +230 - current odds +750
Detroit Pistons to win East Group B +850 - current odds +125 (group favorite)
Los Angeles Lakers to win West Group B +200 - current odds +165 (second in group odds)
Golden State Warriors to win West Group C +230 - current odds -280 (group favorite)
Cleveland Cavaliers to win the NBA Cup +1000 - current odds +650
Golden State Warriors to win the NBA Cup +1600 - current odds +700
Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA Cup +1600 - current odds +1500
Overall, things are looking great if you came along for the ride. Getting a +850 group winner bet down to the favorite to win their group is awesome to see. We also grabbed the Warriors at +230 and they’re currently massive favorites to win their group. Cleveland and Golden State both have seen huge odds decreases in their chance to win the Cup with it looking extremely likely they’ll be moving onto the next round. Dream scenario would be for the Lakers to steal their group or a wildcard spot as well to secure all three champ picks into the next round creating easy hedge scenarios.
Cleveland vs Boston
As noted above, this is an early candidate for Game of the Year with the Cavs undefeated and off to a historical start. Only four NBA teams have ever started the season 15-0 with it last happening in 2016 with the Golden State Warriors. Boston are the defending champions and installed as 5.5 point favorites tonight with a monster 236.5 point total. This is noteworthy given that both teams rank inside the top-10 in team defensive rating. Cleveland plays at a top-7 pace in basketball, however, which is certainly aiding the loftiness of that total.
These two teams are number one and two in team offensive rating – but the main difference that sticks out to me is three point shooting. Right now, Cleveland leads the NBA in three-point% as a team at 41.9% with the Celtics ranking 11th at 37%. However, the Celtics take significantly more three pointers averaging over 50 per game while the Cavs shoot 37 per game. That three point shooting is 100% going to dictate this game one way or the other and it should be a closely contested game. I’m expecting to see large minutes for the starting players tonight, especially on the Cleveland side with some of their depth pieces banged up and potentially out for this game.
I would lean Boston to win this game, but I won’t be betting against the wagon that is this Cavs team. If I were looking for a betting angle I would be interested in some SGPs with the starting leg being Donovan Mitchell over 26.5 points. Mitchell has hit this in five of his last six games vs the Celtics. During his time with the Cavs, he’s averaging over 30 PPG against Boston.
NBA Player Prediction: Brandon Miller
Miller is part of an exciting offensive team in Charlotte with teammates Lamelo Ball and Miles Bridges. He ranks second on the team in usage rate (24.8%) behind Ball and is expected to take a huge leap forward in his sophomore campaign. We can see that aggressiveness coming through with him taking 16+ shot attempts in each of the last five games. For whatever reason, those shots haven’t been falling with him shooting just 25.3% from the floor over the last three games. That number is quite a bit off of his 44% FG% mark in 2024, and while he hasn’t shot well this entire season he’s still 10% higher for the season at 35%. We can expect those shots to start falling at a higher clip eventually, and there’s no better match-up for that to start than tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. Brooklyn ranks bottom-five in defensive rating as a team this season and are even worse vs Miller’s position. They come into this game ranking bottom-five in PPG and threes made by Small Forwards. Overall, match-up aside, I’m expecting Miller to have a huge game soon when his shot finally starts falling and I’m willing to buy into that angle tonight. Consider overs on Miller props tonight. You can find more stats on SportWise here.
Written by Ben Hossler