Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 10 First Look Picks (Nov. 6th)
Welcome to our daily newsletter! As we head into Week 10 of the NFL season, the playoff race is heating up. In today's edition, we break down key matchups, including the 49ers vs. Buccaneers and Lions vs. Texans, along with important injury updates that could influence fantasy football and betting decisions.
Week 10 Lookahead
San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We have some huge match-ups in Week 10 as play-off scenarios are taking shape, and I’m going to give my early thoughts on a few that stick out to me. San Francisco are listed as 5.5 point favorites here on the road – and have a chance to be relatively healthy with both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel looking likely to play. Their bye week came at the exact right time, and they have a chance to catch fire to end the year.
Tampa Bay is in the exact opposite spot, coming into this game on a short week and already missing key players on the offensive side of the ball. Todd Bowles continued to show why he’s one of the most overrated coaches in terms of game management on Monday against the Chiefs. Instead of going for 2 and the win at the end of regulation, he opted to go to OT – the Buccaneers never received the ball and lost the game. These types of coaching match-ups I like to take advantage of. Kyle Shanahan not only holds an edge in that aspect, but scheme-wise as well. Todd Bowles is 0-5 ATS as a HC against teams off a bye week – while Shanahan has been good off the bye in recent seasons.
Detroit Lions vs Houston Texans
Sunday night football brings us a fantastic match on paper – with a Super Bowl hopeful in the Lions taking on one of the better up-and-coming teams in the NFL in the Houston Texans. Detroit hasn’t missed a beat this season, and will get back Jameson Williams this week. Houston will also get reinforcements with Nico Collins set to finally return from injury. Will Anderson picked up an injury in their last game vs the Jets – but with them having a mini-bye after the Thursday game time there is optimism Anderson will suit up.
Overall, I’ve been looking for a spot to potentially short this Lions team for a game or two and I’m not sure this is the one. CJ Stroud has struggled at times this season, and Detroit should have Za’Darius Smith active for this game as well. Until someone knocks the Lions down I would have to keep riding them and certainly lean towards them in this spot if the spread settles at 3 or less.
Wednesday Injury Report
Chris Olave (concussion)- It was announced on Wednesday that Olave is slated to see a concussion specialist this week. New Orleans hasn’t made any firm decisions on whether or not to place him on IR. With Rashid Shaheed already out for the year, New Orleans will have to rely heavily on young, in-experienced players like Bub Means should Olave miss extended time.
Jonathan Brooks- Brooks was the 46th overall pick in this past NFL draft, but has yet to make his NFL debut as he was rehabbing a knee injury. He was finally activated to the roster today, and practiced in full, setting him up to make his NFL debut on Sunday in Germany. I’m sure he will get eased in, but Brooks could provide value for fantasy teams making a play-off push.
Tee Higgins (quad)- Higgins is listed as doubtful for tomorrow night’s game against the Baltimore Ravens. I noted in yesterday’s newsletter that it makes no sense to bring him back on a short week and it looks like the Bengals staff agrees. This is a huge divisional game, and Cincy will once again need to rely heavily on Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown and Mike Gesicki in the passing game. Gesicki has actually posted more fantasy points with Higgins out this year than Chase in a four game sample.
AJ Brown (knee)- Brown was seen participating in practice today which is a great sign for his availability in Week 10. Wednesday is often used as a rest day during the season, so the fact that he was getting any work in at all this afternoon gives me optimism he suits up on Sunday vs Dallas.
Early Week 10 Fantasy Match-up to Target
Sam Darnold vs Jacksonville- Darnold comes into this week ranked 14th overall in fantasy scoring among QBs. Despite ranking outside the top-12 at his position, we have seen multiple spike weeks from him already – scoring 20+ fantasy points four times. He has a strong match-up in Week 10 against the Jaguars who are conceding the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. They play pretty man-heavy on the defensive end which could be a nightmare against the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor – all who grade out well in terms of separation statistics. Early Vegas lines have Minnesota with a solid 25 point implied team total and I view Darnold as viable in all leagues in Week 10.
Written by Ben Hossler