Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 11 TNF Preview (Nov. 14th)
Week 11 begins on Thursday night with a huge divisional battle between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. Washington has been the surprise of the league this season coming in with a 7-3 record while the Eagles sit at 7-2. These teams are battling for the NFC East crown with the Giants and Cowboys firmly out of the picture. The Eagles are installed as -3.5 point home favorites in this one with a healthy 49.5 game total. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on Prime Video.
Philadelphia Eagles
We know the story when it comes to the Eagles - they have a dynamic offense consisting of Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert and rank top-10 in Yards per Play as a team. Jalen Hurts has absolutely crushed the Commanders in his career – and while this is a different version of the team he has also had success against Dan Quinn defenses in the past. Over his last 4 match-ups with the Commanders he’s averaging 288 YPG along with 11 TDs and 1 INT. Over his last four match-ups vs a Dan Quinn defense he’s averaging less YPG (221) but equally as good TD:INT with a mark of 6:2. AJ Brown has also destroyed the Commanders gashing them for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in two games last season. It’s another great match-up for him tonight as he’s expected to line up opposite rookie Mikey Sainristil. Sainristil is the currently weak link of the Commanders pass defense, mainly because he is playing out of position. He’s a natural nickel corner and has been forced to play outside more this season – this is a big reason why the Commanders made a move for Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. Lattimore isn’t healthy yet, and is out for tonight, allowing for Brown to exploit this mismatch. Like most nickel corners, Sainristril is smaller in stature listed at 5’10 183 pounds. AJ Brown has a distinct size advantage checking in at 6’1 226. AJ Brown also grades out well vs man-coverage which the Commanders run more than half of the league. He leads the league in YPRR vs that coverage split this season and I will be looking for another big game from Brown on Thursday night. I would consider his prop overs or a touchdown bet.
Washington Commanders
As for the Commanders, as noted above they’ve been the surprise of the NFL. Clearly they hit on Jayden Daniels, he grades out behind only Lamar Jackson in EPA/dropback. Nobody could have expected him to be this good this quickly, what’s even more impressive to me is how well he takes care of the ball and limits turnovers with his decision making.
One thing I noticed last week is that it was the first time this season he didn’t run the ball much. He had just five yards on the ground and that could be because of the match-up against the Steelers. They’ve allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs this season – while the Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest. Whether or not Daniels can get more active scrambling will be a big factor in this game, and I’m sure Philly will make a point to try and limit his legs. Philadelphia’s defense is one of the best that Daniels’ has seen this season – while Daniels is also the best QB that the Eagles have seen in a few weeks. This is a high total, so Vegas is expecting points but I don’t have enough confidence in either team to take a side in this one.
Written by Ben Hossler