Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 12 MNF Preview (Nov. 25th)
Week 12 wraps up on Monday night with the Baltimore Ravens traveling cross-country to face the Los Angeles Chargers. The Ravens are listed as short 2.5 point road favorites, while the game boasts a healthy total of 50.5 points. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Baltimore Ravens
This is a massive game with play-off implications and two brothers squaring off in Jim and John Harbaugh. On top of the familiarity between the brothers – Jim hired two coordinators who previously worked for his brother John in Baltimore – Jesse Minter and Greg Roman. Baltimore is coming off a tough loss at the hands of the divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Chargers are coming off a close emotional win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The public is buying low on the Ravens heavily tonight with over 70% of the spread and ML tickets coming on on the road team. As noted above, this is expected to be a high-scoring game as evidenced by that monster 50.5 total. Baltimore has been known as a running team this season with their rushing attack led by Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson – but I’m buying into the passing game here. Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Chargers lead the league in % of defensive plays in Cover 4. That is one of Jackson’s best coverage splits – ranking top-five in nearly every metric in the split. We’ve seen how volatile Zay Flowers has performed this season, topping 100+ yards in four games and being held to 50 or less in six games. He also grades out extremely well against Cover 4 and I’m looking for a potential Flowers eruption on Monday night after Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for three touchdowns last Sunday night.
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Los Angeles Chargers
LA has clearly been playing above their heads, but this is a talented, young team that is ascending under a new coaching staff. On paper, I think this is a great match-up for the passing game given that the Ravens are allowing the third-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs and have surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL. Both Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have strong match-ups as well, for different reasons. Baltimore ranks inside the top-12 in the NFL in man-coverage this season which is good news for McConkey. Per PFF, he ranks top-three in overall grade and fantasy point per drop-back against man-coverage. He is one of the best pure route-runners in the league so this is no surprise. As for Johnston, he is second on the team in target-share behind McConkey and should get some down-field looks here. Baltimore has allowed the most completions of 20+ yards down the field this season. They’ve also really struggled to contain outside WRs, which is where QJ primarily lines up.
We got afternoon news that star LB Roquan Smith is unlikely to play for the Ravens. This is obviously a huge downgrade to the Ravens defense as a whole, but I’m hoping it doesn’t cause the Chargers to be more run-heavy than they need to be. Smith is the leading tackler on this team, and missing such a key piece at LB is going to cause their run-defense to suffer. Note this is one of the best run defenses in football, and Smith certainly plays a factor in that. Both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards are former Ravens so I’m sure they will be motivated to get in the end zone here. I’m upping my interest in Dobbins props with that Smith news.
Touchdown Prediction: Zay Flowers
I think you could tell above where I was going with this. Despite the high total, I still lean towards the over in this contest and I’m expecting to see plenty of points scored. Flowers is coming off two bad games – posting lines of 4-34 and 2-39 against the Bengals and Steelers respectively. Both of those teams play completely different than the Chargers on the back-end and the match-up is much better for him tonight. We’ve seen the massive ceiling on Flowers multiple times this season, and when he hits he typically does so in a big way. I will be looking at overs on Flowers props, and I like him to get into the end zone against a defense that’s been vulnerable to opposing WR1’s all season.
Written by Ben Hossler