Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 12 Sleepers & Busts (Nov. 22nd)

Welcome to our daily newsletter! As we head into Week 12 of the NFL season, we've got you covered with the latest fantasy football insights. In this edition, we’re highlighting some sleepers who could make a big impact, along with a few busts you might want to steer clear of. Let's dive in...

Sleepers

Rome Odunze

I’ve been waiting for the big, breakout game from Odunze all season and I think it could be this week against the Vikings. His usage has been sky-rocketing since the bye week, and he was a heavy focus of plays drawn up by new OC Thomas Brown in Week 11. He saw over 30% of Caleb Williams' targets in Browns’ one game calling the offense – with an end zone target as well. Minnesota blitzes at a top-five rate in football – and Odunze has the best splits among all Bears pass catchers vs the blitz this season. He has just one TD coming into this week, but I think that changes against the Vikings. 

Tony Pollard

Pollard was in the Busts section last week, but finds himself at sleeper-level with Tyjae Spears out due to a concussion. Pollard has logged his best games of the season with Spears inactive, averaging over 13 fantasy PPG across the last three games he’s missed. His snap-rate was trending down over the last few weeks, but he should be back to an over 80% level against the Texans. With Spears out, he was regularly seeing 20% of the teams targets and that will play a key factor against a team as good as Houston. 

Dylan Laube

This is a deep cut, but I’m personally hoping for a Dylan Laube coming out party in Week 12. Both Zamir White and Alexander Mattison are listed doubtful for the Raiders – clearing the runways for Ameer Abdullah and Dylan Laube. Abdullah is an aging veteran at this point, while Laube was selected in the sixth-round of this past draft. He led FCS in all-purpose yards in each of his last two seasons at New Hampshire, and has supreme pass catching ability which would play well in a game that the Raiders are underdogs. He was the talk of Raiders camp, and it’s been reported that he could be a “big part” of the Raiders game plan this Sunday. 

Busts 

D’Andre Swift

Swift missed practice time this week, but is expected to be active for this Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings. I will be avoiding him in Week 12, based on alarming usage in their Week 11 game under new OC Thomas Brown. His snaps plummeted to just over 50% – his lowest mark since September. Swift’s back-up saw season-high usage especially in the red-zone handling two of their three goal line carries. I think a rise in Johnson’s workload could be sticky and I’m going to remain in wait and see mode moving forward with Swift. He hasn’t been super involved in the passing game as of late either, which can’t be good in a game the Bears are expected to be trailing. 

Matthew Stafford

Stafford is coming off his best game of the season, posting 27.8 fantasy points against the New England Patriots. Despite the recent form, he won’t be a target of mine in Week 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Vic Fangio has completely transformed the Eagles defense this season. As of today, they grade out as the second-best pass-defense in football and have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy PPG to QBs. Philadelphia is much easier to run on, than to pass as of now and I’m expecting Sean McVay to scheme a more run-heavy approach on Sunday. 

Jaylen Waddle

This pains me to write, but I don’t see how you can trust Waddle for the remainder of the season. This is a good match-up at home vs a banged up Patriots secondary – but Waddle has done literally nothing to inspire any confidence with 400 yards and only one touchdown on the season. He hasn’t been a man-coverage beater this season, either, and the Patriots are one of the few teams remaining that like to emphasize that coverage split. I’m more encouraged about the outlooks of Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane this week. 

Written by Ben Hossler