Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 12 TNF Preview (Nov. 21st)

Week 12 kicks off with a divisional game between the Steelers and Browns with bad weather expected in Cleveland. Pittsburgh opened as 4.5 point favorites but have moved down to 3.5 despite overwhelming action on them to win and cover. The game features a total of 36.5 points, down from the 43.5 mark at open. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on Prime Video. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The trendy stat of the Week from Alan Saunders is that the Steelers are 0-7 in their history in road divisional games held on Thursday Night Football. Furthermore, they’re 0-5 in that category under Mike Tomlin. They’ve also won just one time in Cleveland since the 2017 season. Regardless of how the weather shakes out, I’m expecting a run-heavy approach from the Steelers on the short week. If you look at season-long statistics you’ll see that Cleveland features a pretty stout run defense – but that doesn’t tell the full story. Since losing star LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah the Browns run-defense has plummeted. He’s missed the last two games, in which they’ve allowed a 6.1 YPC and FIVE touchdowns on the ground. Pittsburgh skews more run-heavy as it is and I’m expecting a big workload from both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren on Thursday night. They notably brought in Justin Fields to close out the game with two carries vs Baltimore last week and I won’t be shocked to see him come in for a few designed runs tonight as well. 

Cleveland Browns 

As for the Browns, this has been a season of horrors and many expect to clean house at the end of the season and approach 2025 with a brand new coaching and management staff. Despite how they’ve struggled this season, I do think they’re the right side of this game given those massive betting splits on Pittsburgh and the reverse line movement towards them. Notably, Kevin Stefanski is 7-3 ATS on a short week in his HC career. With Ken Dorsey calling the plays, they’ve wanted to play fast and go pass-heavy even in neutral game-script. I will be interested to see how the weather affects that tonight and whether or not we see a more run-heavy approach. I’m not sure if I have the stones to do it, but I do think I would lean Browns +3.5 if looking to pick a side of this match-up. 

Touchdown Prediction: Nick Chubb

Light the bat signal! Chubb has scored just one time since returning from injury four games ago, but tonight could be the night to change that. This is a massive spot for the Browns when it comes to narratives. Not only is Kevin Stefanski presumably coaching for his job, but Chubb is facing off against the team that ended his season and sent him to IR over a year ago. Chubb was on his way into the end zone when he took a hit to the knee from Minkah Fitzpatrick ending his, and essentially the Browns, season. Chubb saw just 11 carries last Sunday vs the Saints — but Stefanski made comments that they limited him purposely in preparation for this game. Bad weather aside, I’m expecting to see season-high usage for Chubb in this revenge spot and I’m willing to back him to find the end zone on Thursday night.

Written by Ben Hossler