NFL Thanksgiving Day Games Predictions: Preview & Touchdown Picks
Thanksgiving Day football brings plenty of action with two divisional games and a high total contest in the nightcap. First, the Detroit Lions look to extend their dominance as they host the Chicago Bears, while the Dallas Cowboys face a tough challenge against the New York Giants. Green Bay aims to hold off the Miami Dolphins in cold conditions at Lambeau Field. Let's dive into the games...
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
The first game of the afternoon is a divisional match-up between the Bears and Lions set to kick-off at 12:30 ET. The Lions are installed as 10.5 point home favorites, while the game features a slate-high 48.5 point total.
This game features a pair of conflicting Thanksgiving Day trends. Dan Campbell is 0-3 on Thanksgiving day. Last season, the Lions closed as 8.5 point favorites against the Packers and lost 29-22. However, history is on their side. Double-digit favorites are 11-0 on Turkey Day since 1990 per ActionLabs. Similarly, over that same sample-size, touchdown favorites are 74% ATS.
This game comes down to a few things for me. For starters, it’s kind of a nightmare spot for the Chicago Bears. They’re on the road, against an extremely physical Lions team after playing a tough overtime game against the Vikings last week – a game in which they ran 76 total plays, they’re second-highest play total of the season. Their run-defense has been sputtering and now ranks bottom-three in rush DVOA on the season. They’ve allowed well over 100 yards on the ground in each of the last four games. That sounds like a nightmare against this potent Detroit Lions rushing attack and we have seen this team completely impose their will on the ground multiple times this season. In fact, Detroit has multiple wins this season in which Goff has failed to exceed 150 passing yards. David Montgomery is banged up after exiting last week's game, but all signs point to him being good to go for this match-up in what is a revenge game against his former team. Monty has faced his former team two times, resulting in one touchdown. I believe that the way to attack this Bears defense is very much on the ground – but we can’t overlook the match-up for Jameson Williams. Chicago is facing the eighth-highest average depth of target by opposing pass catchers this season, and Williams has had success against them in the past. Furthermore, Williams' game has been completely transcendent at home vs on the road. Williams’ is averaging 100 yards at home in Ford Field this season compared to just 40 on the road. He’s also scored three of his four touchdowns at home. I’ve hit on Williams' props a few times this season – and will be looking to alt-up his receiving yards in this match-up with reverse-correlation by taking an under on 3.5 or 4.5 receptions for a bigger payout.
As for the Bears – you simply do not want to run on this Lions defense. Detroit brought in DJ Reader this off-season who is notoriously one of the best run-stuffers in football. They allowed the least amount of rushing yards in the NFL last season and added Reader into the fold. Caleb Williams is coming off his best game as a pro against the Vikings and will be called upon once again on Thursday. If the Bears do anything in this game, it’s going to have to come from him. Detroit’s defense has operated as a pass-funnel and they’re allowing the seventh-most Air Yards on completions. Rome Odunze leads the team in both Air Yards and Air Yards per Reception so I will once again be buying into a breakout game from the rookie. It seems like the perfect time to buy low, as well, after both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen erupted in Week 12.
Game Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 17 – Rome Odunze touchdown.
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New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Game number two is set to kick-off at 4:30 ET and is another divisional match-up. This is the “worst” game of the day sporting a low 37.5 total. The Cowboys are listed as short 3.5 point home favorites.
Potentially the biggest trend of them all on Thanksgiving Day has been betting against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has a long history of struggling on Turkey Day and that’s been amplified in recent seasons. They are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five Thanksgiving day games with the lone cover coming last season against the Washington Commanders. Notably, they had a healthy Dak Prescott in that game.
Despite the Cowboys lack of holiday success, it’s really hard to have any confidence in the New York Giants. Tommy Devito is just not an NFL QB at this point, but the Cowboys defense has been atrocious this season especially at home in JerryWorld. This is a classic immovable object meets an unstoppable force scenario and something has to give on Thursday. New York’s best chance for success is going to be on the ground in this one – Dallas ranks bottom-five in both rushing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed per attempt. Tyrone Tracy, despite the fumbling issues, has been ascending in recent weeks and topped 100+ yards in two of his last four games. We could also see a bit of a squeaky wheel game for Malik Nabers. Nabers made post-game comments to ask the coaches why he wasn’t involved in the first half of last weekend’s game. Brian Daboll could make it a point to get his star the ball early and they’re going to need a big game from him if they want any chance of pulling off an upset.
Dallas is coming off a close win over the Commanders, after trying to hand them back the game late. Rico Dowdle has fully taken over as their lead back, which is why he’s the favorite to find the end zone of any player in this game. He saw 22 touches in their win last week,, and with them favored in this spot I’m expecting another heavy workload. New York gave up a rushing touchdown to FOUR different carriers in their Week 12 loss to Tampa Bay – which could be the sign of a team that’s preparing to give up on their season. On top of their slipping run defense – they’ve allowed the fifth-highest YPA in the NFL. This is an obvious smash spot for CeeDee Lamb who has historically been better at home vs on the road.
I simply can’t bet on the Cowboys to win this game, but I do think it could be a bit higher scoring than the total implies.
Game Prediction: Cowboys 23, Giants 20 - Tyrone Tracy touchdown
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
The nightcap provides us with a solid 47.5 point total, as the Dolphins travel to face-off with the Packers in expected cold temperatures. Green Bay find themselves as 3.5 point favorites at home and kick-off is set for 8:20 ET.
This is the ultimate narrative game, and getting that right or wrong is going to be the key to success in betting or playing fantasy on this game. That narrative being, the Miami Dolphins inability to play in cold weather. Temps are expected to average in the 20s on Thursday night in Lambeau – and Miami has long struggled in the cold. Since 2004, Miami is 8-19 when the temperature is below 40 degrees at kick-off and have lost 11 of those games in a row. Tua Tagovailoa has played four games in that 40 degrees or lower sample, losing all four.
It’s tough to argue against that trend at the end of the day, however Vegas doesn’t seem to be as concerned. As noted above, this game has a solid 47.5 point total while the Dolphins team total sits at 22.5. It’s noteworthy that Tua’s offenses have topped 26+ points in two of those four games, and scored below 10 in the other two.
Tua has been on fire since returning from his latest concussion throwing for 11 touchdowns compared to just one INT across those five games. Green Bay looks likely to be missing Jaire Alexander once again for this game, improving the match-up for him if he can put to rest the cold weather narrative. He made comments about this exact thing earlier this week.
It’s been easier to run on Miami than pass on them this season, which sets up well for Green Bay. Josh Jacobs has completely taken over and is coming off a three touchdown game against the San Francisco 49ers. What’s a bit concerning to me, however, is this quote from Matt Lafleur after that win citing a potential workload decrease for Jacobs on the short week. Green Bay will be missing Romeo Doubs for this game due to a concussion (most likely) meaning they will need to rely on Dontayvion Wicks to step up in his absence. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson will obviously be counted on as well. Watson dropped a gimme 50 yard touchdown last week, but once again led the team in routes run. He seems primed for a big role here sans Doubs – but will also be in line to draw the majority of Jaylen Ramey’s coverage. Jayden Reed has the best match-up on-paper and is my favorite bet to score a touchdown from the Packers given his potential involvement in the rushing attack as well. Reed has seen at least one carry in every game this season, except for their last game against the 49ers. I think that coaching quote could mean potentially a few carries for him in this game.
I like the Packers to win this game, narrative aside. Both these teams have been hitting their stride but night game favorites are hitting over 70% ATS on Thanksgiving per ActionLabs.
Game Prediction: Packers 28, Dolphins 17 – Jayden Reed Touchdown
Written by Ben Hossler