Daily Newsletter: NFL Week 7 Takeaways + MNF Preview (Oct. 21 2024)
Kansas City Snooze Fest
In yesterday’s Week 7 preview I highlighted the Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. I also noted that HC Andy Reid was 21-4 straight up off a bye week, and that number grew to 22 after the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 28-18. What’s hilarious about this all, is the Chiefs have perfectly crafted their brand of “boring” winning football. When Patrick Mahomes took the league by storm in 2018, it was a fantasy goldmine. He threw for 5,000 yards in his first year as a starter, along with 50 touchdowns en route to the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year award. It was evident after his first start to me, that we had a special player on our hands. Fast forward six years, and we still have the best QB in the league – and arguable the best QB of all-time, but that’s just not the case in fantasy football. Tyreek Hill was traded prior to the 2022 season, Travis Kelce is aging, the offense is not exciting. They hit in last year's draft with Rashee Rice, but he is out for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury. Patrick Mahomes is currently the favorite for the MVP award despite having more interceptions than touchdowns, and ranking as the QB22 in fantasy points.
This is not to say that he’s declining, or bad. This is to say that the Chiefs are completely comfortable being boring and winning. In fact, we’ve seen Kansas City beat up on one of their top AFC opponents, the Buffalo Bills, so regularly that the Bills have tried to replicate that boring brand of football. Josh Allen is still putting up fantasy numbers due to his rushing stats, but yesterday was the first time he threw for over 300 yards in a game this season. Similar to KC, they traded away a star WR and have put together a hodgepodge of veteran and rookie pass catchers. The Kansas City Chiefs are once again one of the best teams in football. Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best QB of all-time – winning three Super Bowls and playing in four by the age of 28 while also hosting the AFC Championship game in all six of his years as a starter. Despite all that, they’re almost completely useless when it comes to scoring fantasy points and it’s utterly mindblowing.
Week 7 Injury Fall Out
After a full slate of Sunday games, we are bound to have injury situations to monitor and dissect and that is exactly the case heading into Week 8. Here are some of the bigger ones from Week 7:
- Jayden Daniels- Daniels left the game early vs the Panthers and did not return due to a rib injury. X-Rays came back negative, and additional tests will be done today. We should get an update from HC Dan Quinn this afternoon, but overall the situation seems optimistic.
- Brandon Aiyuk- Aiyuk is feared to have suffered a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the season if true. This is a brutal blow for the 49ers, who will need to rely on rookies Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing to fill the void left by Aiyuk down the stretch.
- Deshaun Watson- Watson suffered a torn achilles on Sunday and will miss the remainder of the season. It’s likely he misses the start of next season as well, and could very well be on a new team or just retire at this point. It looks like the Browns will turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson as they essentially tank the rest of the season.
Monday Night Football Preview
We have a pair of MNF games tonight, kicking off with the Ravens vs the Buccaneers at 8:15 ET on ESPN. The Chargers vs Cardinals will then kick-off at 9:00 ET broadcast on ESPN+.
Baltimore vs Tampa Bay
The first of the two games tonight looks like a dandy between what has been two of the best teams in the league to start the season. Baltimore comes into tonight as the best team in the league in my opinion, and they’re listed as 3.5 point favorites on the road. The big storylines from this game will be whether or not Tampa can slow down Derrick Henry, and whether or not Baltimore can slow down the Buccaneers passing attack. It’s worth noting that Baker Mayfield is a notorious zone coverage beater – while the Ravens play zone around 70% of the time. We also have some dueling trends in this game. Road favorites are 15-1 this season, which works in favor of the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is also 22-1 vs NFC teams as a starter – another positive for the Ravens. That being said, he’s just 21-31 ATS as a favorite of over 3 points in his career. All-in-all, this should be a great game between two great teams. I would typically side with the home team getting points, but it’s also tough to go against the team I have power rated as number one in the league.
Los Angeles vs Arizona
This game is less exciting than the first contest, but the Chargers are on the rise under new HC Jim Harbaugh and the Cardinals have flashed at times this season as well. Above I noted that road favorites are 15-1 this season. Los Angeles fits that mold here, listed as 1.5 point favorites, and I do think they win this game given they’re a much better team top to bottom. It’s a good match-up for rookie Ladd McConkey, who seems ready to break out especially with Quentin Johnston down due to injury. McConkey has been involved in the red zone, and if I were picking a player in this game to score a touchdown it would be him. Arizona has played into shootouts almost every week this season, as well. I would lean towards the over in this game, even though the Chargers want to be a run-first team.
Written by Ben Hossler