NBA Play-In Preview & Predictions (April 15th)

As the NBA Play-In Tournament heats up, two pivotal matchups take center stage. The Hawks look to upset a tough Magic squad on the road, while the Warriors aim to handle a young, evolving Grizzlies team at home. Here’s what to know heading into Tuesday night.

Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic 

Odds: Magic -5.5, 219 Total 

The “Play-In” is still a pretty new concept in the NBA and one thing has been clear thus far, there is a huge edge for the home teams. Home teams are winning over 70% of play-in games thus far and this will be a tough task for the Atlanta Hawks as the head to Orlando on Tuesday evening. 

When analyzing this game, two things stand out. How will Atlanta slow down Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner – and how will the Magic slow down Trae Young. Orlando is missing one of their best on-ball defenders tonight in Jalen Suggs, who would have taken the task of defending Young. Wagner and Banchero both have strong history’s against the Hawks who traded away one of their best wing defenders in D’Andre Hunter at the deadline. 

As you can see, this total is significantly lower than the later game and these play-in games have historically been lower scoring as teams tighten up rotations grind down the stretch of the game.This is a huge advantage for the Magic in my opinion, who are the much better defensive team and have feasted on bad defenses this season. Overall, that defense will be too much for the Hawks to overcome in the second half. 

Winner: Magic

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors

Odds: Warriors -7, 227.5 Total 

This will be a great end to the night, given how competitive the west has been all season. This game features two very different teams – a young Grizzlies side looking to make some noise with a new coach in comparison to this veteran Warriors team with Jimmy Butler making his postseason debut with them. 

The biggest key for me in this game is going to be how the Grizzlies try and defend Golden State. Memphis sent shockwaves through the NBA a few weeks ago when they fired Taylor Jenkins seemingly out of the blue. Tuomas Iisalo took over as HC and he has made some major changes. He’s playing a different rotation, with Zach Edey logging 28+ minutes in every game and he is utilizing PNR significantly more on offense. While Edey has been a beast on the boards, he still struggles to defend at the NBA-level and I think the Warriors will make a point to hunt him early on in the game. Whether Memphis leaves Edey in, or increases Santi Aldama’s minutes — or even plays Jaren Jackson more at the five – will be something I’m looking for in this game early on. 

I believe there is value in the market on Aldama props tonight, given that there is a chance he sees an increased role. Overall, the Warriors will be too much to handle and I expect them to pull away as the game nears its finish. 

Winner: Warriors

Written by Ben Hossler