NBA Play-In Preview & Predictions (April 16th)
The NBA Play-In Tournament continues with two pivotal matchups: Heat vs. Bulls and Mavericks vs. Kings. With playoff spots on the line, we break down the odds, key injuries, and who has the edge in these win-or-go-home games.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Odds: Bulls -1, 220 Total
We kick off night two of the play-in games with two familiar foes facing off between the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls. For reference, the Heat have beaten the Bulls in each of the last two years in this same scenario. These two situations couldn’t be more different, however, the Heat were at home for both of those games and tonight the Bulls will host. Yesterday I noted that home teams have won over 70% of play-in games in its few year history – while both home teams advanced last night as well. Miami has struggled on the road and in close games this season, setting them up in a tough spot tonight on the road in a close spread game. Chicago has also had this team's number this season – the Bulls are 3-0 against Miami during the 2024-25 season and all three of those games came with the Heat missing Jimmy Butler. I’m not sure if you know, but Butler won’t be on the court for Miami tonight either.
It’s tough to bet against a coach like Erik Spoelstra in a must-win game, but this just isn’t a vintage Heat team in my opinion. Chicago has been red hot down the stretch of the season and I think they finally slay the dragon and pick up a win over Miami tonight.
Winner: Bulls
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings
Odds: Kings -5, 213.5 Total
I personally view this as the worst play-in game thus far, with two teams that really aren’t deserving of a play-off spot in my opinion. Dallas would be well equipped for a run if they were fully healthy, but without Kyrie Irving I frankly think they have no chance. Sacramento shook things up later in the season firing Mike Brown and trading away De’Aaron Fox – and they just haven’t been able to put things together offensively at any point. That being said, I think Dallas is dead in the water and would need a superhero effort from Anthony Davis to get into the play-offs. Sticking with our home team theme, I’m backing the Kings tonight and I’m looking for Keegan Murray to play a bigger role offensively with Malik Monk still sidelined.
Winner: Kings
Written by Ben Hossler