NBA Play-In Preview & Predictions (April 18th)
The NBA Play-In Tournament continues with two pivotal matchups that will determine the final playoff spots in each conference. As history, betting trends, and player dynamics collide, we dive into the key factors that could shape the outcomes. From star power to subtle matchup edges, here's what to watch for as the postseason picture comes into focus.
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
Odds: Hawks -1, 221 Total
Miami handled a seemingly disinterested Bulls team with ease on Wednesday night and now travel to Atlanta in a winner take all game to decide the Eastern Conference 8th seed. Since the inception of the play-in round, no 10 seed has ever made the play-off making them 0-8 across four seasons. Miami would become the first ever 10 to make the play-offs should they win tonight. I wrongly picked the Bulls over this Heat team on Wednesday and I’m going to pick against them again tonight. Miami has struggled on the road this season, and in close games which we should see tonight given it’s a one point spread. They jumped all over the Bulls early and the game was never in reach for Chicago – and I question just how motivated they were in that game.
Miami is the public side tonight over 82% of the bets, but only around 76% of the handle. This game should come down the wire but I ultimately trust the Hawks role players more than Miami and we could see a bounce-back game from Trae Young after his late ejection against Orlando.
Winner: Hawks
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Odds: Grizzlies -6, 221.5 Total
As I noted above, the 10th seed in these play-in rounds are 0-8 all-time which would mean the Mavericks, like Miami, are on the wrong side of small-sample history. According to ActionLabs, the favorite’s are 7-1 ATS in the second round of the play-in since its inception. This is another trend that would point in favor of the Memphis Grizzlies. One final factor that supports the Grizzlies in this spot is the game being in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 26-15 at home this season, but just 22-19 on the road. While all the trends and signs point towards Memphis, I’m going against the grain and taking the Dallas Mavericks to advance.
Anthony Davis has absolutely balled out since getting traded to Dallas when healthy and he can be the deciding factor in this game. I’ve been so anti-Mavericks since their Luka Doncic trade but that doesn’t take away both Anthony Davis and the team clearly being motivated in this spot. Davis has completely owned Jaren Jackson in his career, and there’s no chance that they try to put Edey on him either. I’m expecting a big game from AD tonight, and with the Grizzlies missing one of their best on-ball defenders in Jaylen Wells I think they will struggle if the game is close late. Ja Morant also could be more hobbled than we think due to his ankle injury.
Winner: Mavericks
Written by Ben Hossler