49ers vs Colts Predictions: Week 16 Monday Night Football Preview

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts 

Line: 49ers -4.5 

Total: 45.5 

 

We wrap up Week 16 with yet another primetime game featuring major play-off implications. The Colts host the 49ers listed as 4.5 point home underdogs while we should see some points scored thanks to a modest 45.5 point total. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. 

 

This should be a fun game, with Philip Rivers making his second consecutive start and coming off a narrow defeat to the Seahawks last weekend in Seattle. Seattle by most metrics has one of, if not the best overall defensive unit in football and yet Rivers still put the Colts in position to win late in the game. Somehow, some way he always seems to find the ball in his hands with the game on the line and this is a much softer match-up against the 49ers who rank outside the top-25 in overall defensive DVOA. Seattle really sold out to stop Jonathan Taylor and we should see a similar game plan tonight while the Colts try to get the ball out quickly and on target. 

 

The Colts are actually pretty solid defensively, especially against the run. That run stopping unit will get bolstered again tonight with DeForest Buckner returning from injury as well. Indy will be down two DBs in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward so I’m expecting Brock Purdy to be needed for a big game if the 49ers want to have success offensively. George Kittle has been on a tear to end the season and I’m expecting another big game from him tonight in what has graded out as a positive match-up for TE’s. 

 

I think the Colts are very live to win this game outright and when looking at a TD scorer I expect most to choose Jonathan Taylor or Tyler Warren on their side of the ball. My preference would be to look at the short area WR in Josh Downs. Downs scored last week, and his sub-7.0 yard aDOT matches up with Rivers targeting the short and intermediate areas of the field. He also plays mostly in the slot and the 49ers have surrendered a top-12 target rate to slot WR’s this season. 

 

Touchdown Prediction: Josh Downs

Score Prediction: Colts 23, 49ers 20