Rams vs Falcons Predictions: NFL Week 17 Monday Night Football Preview

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons 

Line: Rams -7.5

Total: 49.5

 

We wrap up Week 17 with an NFC banger between the Rams and Falcons. Los Angeles is traveling to Atlanta installed as 7.5 point favorites while Vegas expects plenty of offense given the lofty 49.5 point total. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. 

 

There’s plenty of angles to weigh in this game, with Atlanta already eliminated from play-off contention while the Rams can only fight for seeding purposes due to tiebreak scenarios within their divisional and one seed race. Typically, Sean McVay will rest his starters in Week 18 but with DaVante Adams already unlikely to play in this game we could see him be a bit more cautious than usual. The only pushback on that narrative I can see, is the continuation to push Matt Stafford toward this MVP award and allowing him to keep stat padding especially with a pass-heavy game plan in the red zone. Stafford has double-digit TD passes from inside the 5 this season including a whopping seven of them coming from the one yard line. Historically those have gone to Kyren Williams, but with this MVP nearly in the bag and the emergence of Blake Corum it’s been a safer wager to focus on the Rams pass catchers as opposed to the RBs over the last few months. We know what Puka Nacua brings to the table, but will they push him should he get banged up in this game? It’s a legitimate question. One guy that sticks out to me on the Rams is rookie WR Konata Mumpfield. Mumpfield operated as a 1:1 replacement to Adams in the game he exited due to injury — and last week he ran a route on over 50% of Stafford’s drop backs. He posted a massive 14 yard aDOT on those routes, making him a viable deep threat against the Falcons who have been vulnerable to deep threat WRs this season. Atlanta also runs some of the most single-high looks in the NFL increasing the likelihood that they can be beaten by a Stafford deep ball or two. There could be value on Mumpfield both in single game DFS contests and the prop market. 

 

On the Falcons side of the ball, I think they’re capable of keeping this game close. Atlanta has lost a ton of one to three point games this season which is what’s keeping them out of the play-offs, not their roster as a whole. Drake London should be a full go after being limited last week and when he has been healthy the Falcons offense has been legitimately good. Pitts has really emerged in a contract year, while Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are one of the top RB duos in football. 

 

Los Angeles is the top to bottom best team in the NFL in my opinion but they are banged up coming into this one and it’s always been a question about motivation for these McVay teams late in the season. I don’t think they’ll mail it in at all with Staff fighting for the MVP but I also don’t think they’ll push anyone if they get banged up in this game. I think this should be a close game late, and likely results in yet another one score loss for the Falcons putting a ribbon on what has been a frustrating season for them. 

 

Score Prediction: Rams 31, Falcons 24 

Touchdown Prediction: Konata Mumpfield