2025 AFC Championship Prediction: Bills vs Chiefs Preview

NFL Conference Championship weekend is upon us and we finally will decide who meets in the Super Bowl. We will be previewing both games starting with the AFC Championship...let's dive in!

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

We wrap up Conference Championship weekend with a match-up everyone has been waiting for. Kansas City is listed as a home favorite of 1.5 points while the total rests at 47.5 points. These teams have faced off quite a bit in recent seasons – Josh Allen and the Bills are 4-1 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the regular season, but 0-3 in the play-offs. The public is backing the Bills to finally get over the hump in a big way, with over 60% of the ML and spread tickets coming in on the underdogs. 

This is such an interesting match-up for a multitude of reasons. This is the worst version of the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs we’ve seen, and it doesn’t matter. Last year was the worst version we had seen to date, and they won the Super Bowl anyways. This year’s version is the worst we’ve seen to date and they’ve responded by going 15-2 including 11-0 in one score games. They now find themselves one win away from their shot at becoming the first ever team to win three Super Bowls in a row. Buffalo has failed time and time again in their history to get over the hump…and this is their best shot. It’s poetic though, for them to face-off with Kansas City this weekend. If they want their chance to deliver a Super Bowl to one of the most loyal fanbases in the world, they’re going to have to slay the dragon that’s wreaked play-off havoc on them for the last 5 years. 

While public perception of these teams couldn’t be different, I actually think the Chiefs are being undervalued especially on their home field. Kansas City is as healthy as they’ve been all season and I have questions about the Bills defense and coaching tendencies. Buffalo, on paper, has one of the best defenses in the league. That being said, they’ve struggled against top-tier competition and Patrick Mahomes in the play-offs is as tough of a match-up as you’ll find. Sean McDermott has been labeled too conservative in the past – he responded this year by being one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL during the regular season. However when it mattered most, last week against the Ravens, he turtled once again. He survived the poor decision thanks to Mark Andrews, but it doesn’t inspire confidence heading into this game. Buffalo allowed 21.1 PPG this season, the 9th best mark in football. Against the best teams they faced, all  ranked inside the top-12 in DVOA, that number ballooned to almost 30 PPG. They gave up 40+ twice to the Rams and Lions, and even allowed 25 points to the Ravens last weekend despite forcing three turnovers.

It’s not often that it comes down to more surface level stuff for me in these games. I pride myself on research, but this one comes down to three factors. Coaching, defense and special teams. All three factors favor the home team – and I’m predicting another Mahomes play-off victory on Sunday. 

Score Prediction: Chiefs 28, Bills 27

Touchdown Prediction: Xavier Worthy

Worthy was tackled at the 1 yard line last weekend against the Texans, and I’m backing him to break through for his first postseason touchdown on Sunday. The thing that stuck out to me most about the Chiefs game plan on Sunday was how heavily they utilized and featured Worthy in his first ever play-off game. Andy Reid had a week off to prepare for the game, and it’s clear he thinks Worthy is the best playmaker they have on offense right now given the role we saw him in. He posted his second-highest route% of the entire season, and was behind only Travis Kelce in targets (6). He also saw one carry, and I think we could see two or three for him in a game of this magnitude against the Bills. Once again, the Chiefs have an extra day to prepare having played last Saturday as opposed to Sunday. He has multiple ways to find the end zone whether it be on offense or special teams and I love the spot for him this weekend.

Written by Ben Hossler