2025 NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Commanders vs Lions
The divisional round is here and so are our 2025 NFL Divisional Round Predictions. We will be predicting the outcome of every NFL play-off game and in today's edition we will break down the Commanders vs Lions. Let's dive in....
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
This should be one of the most exciting games of the weekend, with a monster 55.5 total in the night slot on Saturday night. Ford Field will be an absolutely electric atmosphere as the home Lions are favored by 9.5 points.
Overall, I get why the total is so high and I can see both offenses having success. Both teams play more man-coverage than zone and both offenses excel against that coverage split. Aaron Glenn has been very stubborn about staying in man-coverage and that’s good news for Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. Historically, man-coverage is easier for mobile QB’s to run on and we could see a big game from Daniels with his legs. Furthermore, McLaurin has been one of the best WR’s in football this season against that coverage split. He went for 100+ yards in each of his last two games against man-heavy teams (Pittsburgh,Cleveland) with long receptions of 55 and 66 yards. His over 23.5 longest reception is one of my favorite spots on the board.
Detroit’s offense is a juggernaut and I don’t see how Washington can contain them. That being said, Detroit’s defense has really struggled down the stretch of the season and if Washington can survive the crowd early I’m expecting this to be a close game. I’m unsure of if I’ll bet a side here but I would lean towards the Commanders covering and I’m even interested in taking the over on their team total. If I were to pick one of the big underdogs for an upset this weekend, I think Washington is the most likely for one between them, the Texans and the Rams.
Score Prediction: Lions 34, Commanders 28
Touchdown Prediction: Jameson Williams
Williams has routinely been one of my favorite picks this season, and that won’t change Saturday against the Commanders. Washington skews more man-heavy on defense and that’s good news for Williams. He’s excelled against man all season, and it’s really tough to contain his speed on the outside if he gets one on one coverage. As noted above, Jared Goff has also picked apart man-coverage this season and been great against the blitz which Washington does at a top-five rate in football. Williams has been amazing at home on the fast track in Detroit as well, scoring four of his seven touchdowns there and averaging over 70 yards per game.
Written by Ben Hossler