2025 NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Texans vs Chiefs
The divisional round is here and so are our 2025 NFL Divisional Round Predictions. We will be predicting the outcome of every NFL play-off game and in today's edition we will break down the Texans vs Chiefs. Let's dive in....
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Divisional Round kicks-off with the defending champion Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans. Kansas City is installed as 8.5 point home favorites as their quest for the first three-peat in NFL history begins while the total sits at 41.5 – the low mark for any game this weekend.
It’s really, really tough to expect anything other than a Kansas City victory in this one. This is the healthiest this team has been since the beginning of the season. While most teams would have rust concerns coming off a bye week, having rested guys in Week 18 as well the Chiefs don’t fall under that category. Andy Reid is the best coach in NFL history off a bye week during the regular season (22-4 record) and I don’t think we need to dive into how good he’s been in the play-offs on top of it. Key players on both sides of the ball are healthy and ready to go, and the Chiefs have been waiting for this moment all season to really ramp things up similar to what we saw from them in 2024.
Houston can stay in this game with how good their defense is – but I struggle to see the path for them to have a big game offensively. Their team total sits below 17 points, and if it is a close game in the 4th quarter we have the most clutch team in the NFL opposing them. Houston wins via their pass rush led by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, yet Patrick Mahomes is the hardest QB in the NFL to sack.
Houston is also banged up on offense with Joe Mixon logging a DNP on Thursday. They sound confident he will play, but I can’t assume he is 100% healthy and he’s been a big factor for them this season.
Overall, the Chiefs are head and shoulders above this team and while they haven’t looked amazing at times this season this is a different story. KC limped into the play-off last season going 3-3 in their final six games but then pounced on the Miami Dolphins 26-7 in their play-off opener. I’m not betting a side here, but would lean in favor of the home team.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Texans 13
Touchdown Prediction: John Metchie
I’m going to try to pick more longshot touchdowns, similar to my Ty Johnson call from a week ago. Assuming the Texans are able to find the end zone once or twice, the juice may be worth the squeeze with Metchie given that the Texans offense is banged up. He saw his role increase as the season progressed – and posted an average of six targets per game over the last month of the season. More notably, he tied Nico Collins for the team-lead in targets (8) last week in their win over the Chargers. He ranks second on the team behind only Collins in targets inside the 20 (7) and could find himself in a big role should the team be in a trailing game script on Saturday.
Written by Ben Hossler