2025 NFL Wildcard Predictions: Chargers vs Texans
The postseason has finally arrived and so have our 2025 NFL Wildcard Predictions. We will be predicting the outcome of every NFL play-off game and in today's edition we will break down the Chargers vs Texans. Let's dive in....
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
The 2025 NFL postseason kicks off with a pair of young QB’s facing off in Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud. Both of these players have made postseason starts in prior seasons, and this is one of the closer spreads on the weekend with the Chargers installed as short 2.5 point road favorites. This has been a historic season in terms of favorites covering and winning, and it’s no surprise that the public is all over the Chargers in this spot. Over 75% of the ML and spread tickets have poured in on the favorites – public perception of these two teams really couldn’t be much different. In fact, Rex Ryan went as far as to say that the Chargers essentially have a first round bye.
My NFL power rankings that I created in this SportWise dataspace also couldn’t have a further differential between these two teams. Heading into this weekend, the data has the Chargers as the fourth best team in the NFL while the Texans are all the way down at 16th. You can view the full rankings here.
Overall, when breaking down this game I just can’t overlook how poorly the Texans offense has operated this season. CJ Stroud simply hasn’t been set up for success by the coaching staff, and the sophomore slump has hit him hard. Stroud posted monster rookie numbers of 4,108 pass yards and a 23:5 TD:INT ratio. This season, those numbers plummeted to 3,727 and 20:12. Los Angeles has one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL – ranking top-10 in defensive DVOA. They run a zone-heavy scheme and Stroud has struggled against zone-heavy coverage this season. Houston also has a very strong defense ranking top-5 in DVOA, but I trust the Chargers offense significantly more. I also trust their coaching staff more, with Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman and Jesse Minter holding a sizable edge over DeMeco Ryans, Bobby Slowik and Matt Burke in my opinion.
I have no doubts that this game will be close as the spread predicts, and I don’t agree at all with Rex Ryan that this is a bye week for the Chargers. Houston has not performed to expectations, but anything can happen in the NFL play-offs. Houston won as home underdogs in the first round last season, and underdogs have hit over a 60% clip in the play-offs over the last eight seasons. That being said, I often will side with the better quarterback in a close contest and I would give that edge to Herbert as things currently stand.
Score Prediction: Chargers 24, Texans 17
Touchdown Prediction: Ladd McConkey
If you’ve read or watched any of my content this season, you know exactly how high I am on McConkey. We cashed his ATD prop a few weeks ago against the New England Patriots, and I’ll be going right back to the well on Saturday in his play-off debut. He’s truly been one of the best WR’s in football this season both on tape and metrically. He will play plenty in the slot, and that’s where I want to target this Texans defense who has strong outside corner play. Houston is also one of the best teams in football in generating pressure thanks to Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Los Angeles boasts a strong offensive line, but we could see Ladd targeted heavily early on to counteract that incoming pressure. He’s also been heavily involved close to the goal line – commanding eight targets inside the 10 this season while no other Chargers pass catcher has more than three.
Written by Ben Hossler