NFL Week 18 Saturday Preview & Touchdown Pick (Jan. 4th)
We have a Saturday double-header in Week 18 featuring two key AFC North games. The division will be won today, while teams are fighting for their play-off lives and seeding as well. The first game will kick-off at 4:30 ET with the second one immediately following at 8:00 ET. Both games will be broadcast on ABC/ESPN. Let's dive in...
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Week 18 kicks off with a Saturday matinee pitting two rivals together in the Browns and Ravens. Cleveland has completely bottomed out in what has been a lost season, and come into this game as massive 19.5 point underdogs. Baltimore are motivated to secure a win here for the division crown, while the total rests at 41.5 points. It’s pretty wild to see a spread this wide, but this game shouldn’t be competitive. Injuries have mounted for the Browns, and they will be turning to Bailey Zappe at QB. Baltimore’s defense has made gigantic leaps over the course of the season, and that’s telling when you see that the Browns team total is just 9.5 points. If you think the Browns can have any success on offense, there is value on all of their player props and touchdown scorer odds.
I wouldn’t look to lay the 19.5, but opt for the first quarter or first half line in favor of the Ravens. This should be a shellacking from the opening kick-off and I fully expect the Ravens to cruise to a win on Saturday afternoon.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The second game between the Bengals and Steelers should be a much better on-field product – with the Bengals installed as 2.5 point road favorites and a more healthy total of 48.5 points. There is certainly motivation for both teams here – the Bengals need to win for play-off purposes while the Steelers could use a win to change the vibes ahead of the play-offs after two bad losses. Pittsburgh is also coming off a mini bye week following playing on Christmas Day last Wednesday.
The public is backing the favorites here with over 70% of the tickets coming in on the road team. That’s not shocking given how well this team has played offensively down the stretch, and the fact that their season is on the line. At the same time though, we have one of the best ATS coaches especially as an underdog on the opposite side in Mike Tomlin. I think it’s interesting that the Bengals are 2.5 point favorites on the road with the Steelers still looking to clinch the number five seed in this game. If I had to pick a side, I would likely go with the favorites but I would prefer betting on props in this game and looking for a live opportunity to take a game winner.
I wouldn’t be shocked if this game ends up lower scoring than the total indicates – but I also want to note that the Bengals WRs have killed the Steelers since Joe Burrow entered the league. Ja’Marr Chase has 4 touchdowns in 5 career games against the Steelers while Tee Higgins has 4 in 7 games.
Touchdown Prediction: Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow scored a rushing touchdown last week against the Broncos, but that’s not the reason I’m backing him on Saturday. Chase Brown is extremely banged up with an ankle injury, and will test it pre-game to see if he’s able to suit up. Even if he is able to be active, he isn’t going to be 100% and that could play a big factor in the red zone. The obvious choice would be for the Bengals to go more pass-heavy in the red zone assuming Brown is out or limited – but they can also rely on Burrow on the goal line. Cincinnati has a solid 24.5 point team total here and I think there is value on Burrow to find the end zone on potentially a goal line carry / QB sneak.
Written by Ben Hossler