2025 AFC South Preview: Texans Rise, Jaguars Reload, and Titans Rebuild
Welcome to our 2025 AFC South Preview!
As we gear up for the 2025 NFL season, we’re breaking down each division with key offseason moves, betting odds, critical questions, and bold predictions for every team.
Current Odds to Win:
Houston Texans +105
Jacksonville Jaguars +300
Indianapolis Colts +310
Tennessee Titans +750
The weakest division top to bottom in the AFC will still provide plenty of fireworks on Sunday’s. Despite my low expectations and mediocre results in 2024, a few of these teams have playoff aspirations and could make some noise when it’s all said and done. You never truly know when it comes to football, that’s what makes it so great. Let’s dive into the AFC South…
Houston Texans
Key Moves: Signed Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson and Christian Kirk. Traded Stefon Diggs and Laremy Tunsil. Drafted Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
Key Question: Can you keep CJ Stroud safe?
Houston is once again the favorite to win this division, and they have a pretty clean path given the overall strength of the other teams they’re matched up against. When evaluating this team, it’s pretty simple, and it all comes down to the question marks surrounding the offensive line. CJ Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie, and then experienced a pretty significant “sophomore slump” but that doesn’t tell the full story. Stroud was the second-most sacked QB in football last season, hitting the turf over 50 times. It’s really hard for a young QB to excel when he is constantly under pressure and while I don’t think this o-line is going to be good they at least made steps to try and fix the situation. They traded away “star” LT Laremy Tunsil and brought in 4 vets to operate on the offensive line. They also hired a new offensive line coach. Despite the concerns with that unit, they have an elite defense and a star QB making them an easy play-off threat and the clear highest ceiling team in this division. If they were in another division I may be lower on them, but they will once again get by against these teams.
OC Bobby Slowik was exposed as fake sharp all throughout last season – so the change to a new OC will be welcomed for Stroud’s fantasy managers. Nico Collins was arguably the second or third best WR in football when healthy last season – and with Tank Dell set to miss this season the path is clear for a nuclear explosion type season for Collins. I’m all the way in on him in 2025.
Bold Prediction: Nico Collins wins Offensive Player of the Year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Moves: Drafted Travis Hunter, Traded Christian Kirk, Lost Evan Engram to FA
Key Question: What’s the immediate impact of Travis Hunter?
The Jaguars are one of the most interesting evaluations in either conference this season. They have yet to capitalize on the Trevor Lawrence era, yet they served him up a $275 million dollar contract and now they’re looking to get repaid for that in the win column. They fired Doug Pederson and have skewed extremely young in terms of staffing – new HC Liam Cohen is 39 while they also now employ the youngest GM in the league James Gladstone age 34. Gladstone was especially aggressive in his first draft as GM – making a monster trade offer to the Cleveland Browns moving up to number three to select Travis Hunter. The offense is going to be really fun, if everyone stays healthy. Liam Cohen was a big contributor to the Baker Mayfield career renaissance and having Brian Thomas Jr and Travis Hunter in the field at the same time is borderline unfair for defenses.
The defense is the big question mark for me, and I want to see how much Hunter is going to play there right away. This unit should be improved, and I think the Jaguars have a wide range of outcomes. They could miss the playoffs again – and they could also challenge for nine or 10 wins. Ultimately, I think they will be in the divisional race late in the season.
Bold Prediction: Trevor Lawrence plays every game, and has his best season as a Pro.
Click the image below to view our full power rankings from the 2024 NFL season!
Indianapolis Colts
Key Moves: Signed Daniel Jones, Drafted Tyler Warren
Key Question: Do they have competent QB play?
Much like Jacksonville, Indianapolis is hard to evaluate which seems to be the theme of teams in this division. The biggest question has to start and end at the QB position. Indy reached for the stars when they selected Anthony Richardson with the fourth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft – and it feels like his leash is extremely short. He failed to stay healthy in either season, and the team brought in some real competition for him in the form of Daniel Jones. It doesn’t help that Richardson is recovering from injury this offseason and it remains to be seen how healthy he actually will be once mid to late August rolls around. The fact of the matter is, Jones is objectively a better QB than Richardson right now and would give the Colts a better chance to win. He also feels much more suitable for Shane Steichen’s offense than Richardson. My opinion on this offense will hinge on who is playing Quarterback when the games begin.
I like the moves Indy made on defense and I love the hire of Lou Anarumo as DC. Their win total sits at 7.5 which feels right, though I don’t have much conviction one way or the other.
Bold Prediction: Daniel Jones starts more games than Anthony Richardson.
Tennessee Titans
Key Moves: Signed Kevin Zeitler, Dan Moore (both OL), Tyler Lockett. Drafted Cam Ward. Lost Harold Landry to FA.
Key Question: Can Cam Ward survive?
Tennessee will once again be competing for the number one overall pick, but it may not be for the same reasons as last year. They suffered from truly egregious QB play all of 2024 – which is why they ran to the podium to select Cam Ward with the first overall pick in this years draft. I like Ward, it remains to be seen whether or not he is the franchise QB they’ve been waiting for but I like his demeanor and I think he has a really good chance to succeed. HC Brian Callahan’s dad, Bill, is a noted offensive line guru and despite how bad their o-line was a year ago I’m optimistic it can improve drastically this season with some of the moves they made. Keeping Ward upright and allowing him to play a full season, healthy, and learn is much more important than any wins or losses.
The problem for Ward and the offense is, this defense is going to flat out stink. They ranked bottom-five in PPG allowed last season – and feature some key losses on that side of the ball including Harold Landry departing. I’m not optimistic, and they’re going to need to score a lot of points to get anywhere close to their 5.5 win total.
Bold Prediction: Tennessee allows the most points in the NFL on defense.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler)