2025 AFC West Preview: Mahomes Reloads, the Chargers Rise, and a Mile High Breakout
Welcome to our 2025 AFC West Preview
As we gear up for the 2025 NFL season, we’re breaking down each division with key offseason moves, betting odds, critical questions, and bold predictions for every team.
Current Odds to Win:
Kansas City Chiefs -115
Los Angeles Chargers +310
Denver Broncos +340
Las Vegas Raiders +1200
The AFC West is highlighted by strong QB play top to bottom – especially now that Geno Smith joins the worst team in the division, Las Vegas. This is one of the strongest divisions in the NFL roster-wise, and he could easily see three playoff teams representing this division come new years.
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Moves: Re-signed Trey Smith, Nick Bolton, Draft Josh Simmons, Traded Joe Thuney
Key Question: How do the Chiefs respond?
“How do the Chiefs respond?” is not something I anticipated writing about them a year ago, but that needs to be asked after the Eagles demolished them in the Super Bowl. Kansas City got completely exposed in the trenches and the Eagles sacked Patrick Mahomes SIX times despite not calling a single blitz. They’ve overhauled their line entirely coming into this season, but it remains to be seen how it will hold up. It’s essentially the only question this team has, and with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes at the helm they’re always going to be in the title mix. They didn’t lose a single one-score game last season, and somehow I wouldn’t be shocked if they repeated that success in 2025.
I’m hoping for the offense to look a bit more like vintage Mahomes. This is the best compliment of weapons he will have in some time – with Rashee Rice healthy, Xavier Worthy ready for a second year leap and Hollywood Brown still in the mix. Rice was on pace to be one of the best receivers in football last season prior to his season-ending knee injury and I expect him to pick up where he left off. The only problem being, it was announced on Thursday that he will be serving a suspension in 2025. KC is reportedly estimating it to be between two and four games. They will need their other weapons to step up big time in his absence to start the season – and we saw Xavier Worthy operate mainly in the Rice role as the season wound down a year ago.
Bold Prediction: KC once again defies math and goes undefeated in one score games.
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Moves: Re-signed Khalil Mack, Signed Mekhi Becton and Najee Harris, Drafted Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris, Lost Joey Bosa
Key Question: Can they take the next step?
I have the least biased content in the fantasy sports space, but admittedly, I grew up a Chargers fan because of LaDanian Tomlinson so I’ll always have a soft spot for them. This team’s question has been “Can they take the next step?” for what feels like my entire life. Whether it’s Philip Rivers or Justin Herbert – Chargers fans have become accustomed to franchise QB play despite that not exactly translating to post-season success. This year, more than ever, they are poised to take that next step. They have a top-five or six HC in the NFL and he’s coming off a playoff berth in his first season back in the NFL. They have one of the best tackle duos in the league, and addressed the interior offensive line enough to improve the unit heading into the season. They drafted two exciting rookies on offense in Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris while Ladd McConkey is already one of the best receivers in football. We will see what happens on defense, but I’m more confident in this offense than ever and I do see them getting back to the playoffs. Tre Harris has promise, and a Keenan Allen reunion seems likely but that shouldn’t stop McConkey from entering into the OPOY conversation.
Bold Prediction: Ladd McConkey catches 100 passes.
Click the image below for our full divisional rankings from the 2024 NFL season!
Denver Broncos
Key Moves: Drafted Jahdae Barron, RJ Harvey, Signed Evan Engram, JK Dobbins
Key Question: Who will emerge at running back?
Denver surprised a lot of people last season, and I’m sky high on them in 2025. Bo Nix proved himself to be plenty capable in his rookie campaign, while I like the moves they made in the draft and FA bringing in a better RB room featuring JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey – while also signing Evan Engram. Their defense was one of the best in the NFL, but as last season progressed they really struggled to stop the run. This was their Achilles heel in their playoff game against Buffalo – with James Cook and co running wild. They signed multiple players to address this both in the LB and safety room, and this could take an already strong defense to top-three in the NFL level. It seems like the market agrees with me so we aren’t fooling anyone – but this is one of the teams I’ll be most interested in backing when the calendar flips to fall.
To answer the RB question, I think we can look at Sean Payton’s past teams. He has done a great job mimicking his good Saints teams already in Denver. They have a great offensive line, a capable QB, a big body outside receiver to go with some other speedsters and a dynamic tight end. While I like JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey was drafted to be the new “Alvin Kamara” and that’s how I’m personally viewing him.
Bold Prediction: Denver not only makes the play-offs, but wins a play-off game.
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Moves: Re-signed Maxx Crosby, Traded for Geno Smith, Drafted Ashton Jeanty and Jack Bech
Key Question: Can they actually compete?
The Raiders are the odd man out in this division, with the above-three featuring realistic Super Bowl aspirations. Las Vegas made huge splashes this off-season, with arguably the most flashy moves of any team. New minority owner Tom Brady made sure of that – with an entire new front office along with new HC Pete Caroll and OC Chip Kelly. Despite the flashy moves, this roster is still top-heavy and there’s a reason their win total rests below 7. They should be fun to watch, but they have a long way to go before they can compete in a loaded AFC conference. Every year there’s a surprise team or two that make the playoffs – but the Raiders would be at the bottom of my list for that category this season. Geno Smith, Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty will provide fantasy goodness galore, however, and I’m sure they will find their way into my in-season content quite regularly.
Bold Prediction: Ashton Jeanty shows his receiving ability, hauls in 40+ balls.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler)