Chiefs vs Jaguars Predictions: Week 5 Monday Night Football Preview

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Chiefs -3.5

Total: 45.5

We wrap up Week 5 with the Jaguars (3-1) hosting the Chiefs (2-2). The home team is listed as short 3.5 point underdogs while the total sits at a modest 45.5 points. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on both ABC and ESPN. 

Kansas City Chiefs

You can find trends that fit both sides of the narrative in almost any game, but one fact remains that the Jaguars have never beaten Patrick Mahomes. Both of these teams could be deemed “lucky” by some this season – but it’s hard for me to compute the Chiefs luck factor when the best QB/HC combo in the league definitely can mask the rest of the rosters inefficiencies. Jacksonville has had an elite defense this season, but stopping Mahomes will need to be another step up for them. Xavier Worthy being back is truly massive for this offense, and if you’re backing the Chiefs tonight I think the presence of Worthy has to be a big factor. 

I expect it to be your typical Chiefs game, where they win a tightly contested one score game like they seemingly always do. On their offensive side of the ball, I want to watch for rookie Brashard Smith seeing more snaps with how lackluster their run game has been to start the season. 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars 

On the Jaguars side of the ball, I think it’s going to come down to pressure and how Trevor Lawrence handles that. KC is top-three in blitz% this season, and Lawrence has historically struggled under pressure. One way to counteract that would be to run the ball. Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten have been a dynamic one two punch this season and KC features a soft run defense. I would expect the Jags to be able to run the ball tonight. I also think we could see Lawrence get going on the ground a bit too, to counteract those incoming blitzes. 

Overall, I believe the Jags to be one of the best teams in the AFC and I think this will be a close game. They’re going to need Brian Thomas JR and Travis Hunter to step up on offense, though, at some point and they won’t win tonight if they don’t get something out of one of those two. Historically, you’ve been able to target this KC defense in the slot, which is where we will see Hunter when he’s on the offensive side of the ball. Betting on a breakout game from him seems reasonable in primetime. 

 

Touchdown Prediction: Travis Hunter

Score Prediction: Chiefs 20 Jaguars 17