NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football Preview & Picks

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons 

Line: Bills -4.5

Total: 49.5

We kick off the Monday Night football double-header with the Buffalo Bills traveling to take on the Atlanta Falcons installed as 4.5 point road favorites. I wasn’t high on Buffalo coming into the season in relation to the Chiefs and Ravens in the AFC but they’ve run pure with how hurt the Ravens are. As it currently stands they are slight favorites to win the SB just ahead of the Chiefs, however I would put them behind the Chiefs when ranking out the top AFC teams. I didn’t like how reliant their defense was on turnovers last season, and I thought their pass rush was a bit suspect. They’ve dealt with some key defensive injuries this season already, and have not been as good as their record indicates. Josh Allen can mask a lot of inefficiencies from a roster stand point, but the fact remains this team failed to cover as sizable home favorites over both the New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins and just lost outright to the New England Patriots. They seem to let teams hang around, and the Falcons are coming off their bye week tonight giving them extra time to prepare. The weak spot of the Bills defense has been their run defense this year – ranking bottom three in football coming into Monday night. This is a match-up the Falcons can exploit with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and I expect this game to be close coming down the wire on Monday night. 

An interesting spot in this game will be how the Falcons passing game performs with Darnell Mooney still out due to injury. Drake London has historically been peppered with targets sans Mooney and they’re going to need the ancillary guys to step up in his place. A name to watch is Casey Washington who ran a route on over 90% of Penix’s drop backs in the Falcons last game once Mooney exited. 

We should see a heavy diet of James Cook and Josh Allen on the ground tonight for the Bills. Atlanta has been very good at defending the slot and can use AJ Terrell to shadow Keon Coleman so I think both he and Khalil Shakir are in for tough match-ups. 

 

Score Prediction: Bills 31, Falcons 28

Touchdown Prediction: Bijan Robinson

 

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders 

Line: Commanders -5.5

Total: 49.5

We move to our second game of the evening, with the Washington Commanders hosting the Chicago Bears as 5.5 favorites in a batter between top-five picks from last year’s draft. Much like the first game we discussed, I think the edge in this one belongs to the run game of the home team. Chicago is allowing the highest YPC in the league entering this game at 6.1 yards while the Commanders have a dynamic run game headlined by Jayden Daniels and rookie Bill Croskey-Merritt. Now, TJ Edwards will be returning at LB for the Bears tonight and he can play a huge factor in the run game inspiring hope for Bears fans and bettors tonight. We also have a small revenge narrative for the Bears here, after Daniels and co beat them on a hail mary late last season. Overall, if the Commanders are able to run the ball they’re going to win this game but I do think the Bears can keep it close. Washington is leaky in the back-end and vulnerable to big splash plays. They allow the third-highest YPA this season, and the 7th highest Air Yards per Completion. This is a good spot for Caleb Williams and the Bears passing game to exploit them with some splash plays. 

It’s also worth noting that the Commanders are thin at playmaker after Deebo Samuel and Croskey-Merritt. They’re going to need some lesser known players to step up in the absence of Noah Brown who is out for this game in addition to Terry McLaurin. 

 

Score Prediction: Commanders 28, Bears 24

Touchdown Prediction: Bill Croskey-Merritt