Dolphins vs Bills Predictions: Week 3 Thursday Night Football Preview

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills 

Line: Bills -11.5

Total: 50.5

Miami Dolphins

It’s apparent to everyone, the Dolphins are an absolute trainwreck right now. They’re 0-2, and feature what might be the worst defense I’ve seen through two weeks of a season since I began watching football. They have no hope to contain anyone on the back-end and they blitz a ton despite generating little to no pressure. The offense got back on track in Week 2 against the Patriots, but ultimately they still were defeated after a late De’Von Achane touchdown was overruled due to him stepping out of bounds prior to scoring. It’s hard to take any trends from these Dolphins games thus far, because they’ve essentially been trailing for every possession. One thing that is working in their favor here will be that two of the Bills best defenders, Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, will be out for this game. That’s something I think Miami can take advantage of, especially getting the ball into Achane’s hands quickly and letting him rack up YAC. Turnovers have absolutely killed Miami through two weeks, while Buffalo has infamously won the turnover battle in 24 straight games. They’re also extremely difficult to beat at home. 

Overall, I don’t think Miami can try and run the ball a ton here. It should be another good game for the Dolphins passing offense – and whether or not they stay in the game is going to come down to getting any pressure at all on Josh Allen and a few timely stops on defense. 

Buffalo Bills 

Buffalo has looked like Super Bowl contenders through two weeks, staging a dramatic 4th quarter comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 and destroying the New York Jets in Week 2. Given how bad Miami has been on defense, I have no questions about them being able to put points on the board tonight. Josh Allen has elevated himself in recent years to essentially the best or second best QB in football. The only time he is uncomfortable at all is when a team can get after him blitzing and I just don’t think I trust the Dolphins to do that tonight. If he’s able to sit back in the pocket he’s going to do whatever he wants. 

Buffalo has run three main WRs so far this season, that being Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer and Khalil Shakir with Elijah Moore slightly mixing in. All of these guys are in strong spots tonight, but I think looking at either Coleman or Palmer to get down the field is my angle. Miami is bottom-third of the NFL in Air Yards allowed per completion and we’ve already seen several splash plays / longer receiving TDs hit against them. Allen was locked onto Palmer last week against the Jets – partially because Coleman was dealing with Sauce Gardner. That being said, I’ve always thought Palmer was underrated and this is a good spot for him to find the end zone for the first time as a member of the Bills. 

James Cook has been unreal this season, and if Buffalo is winning big we should see a heavy dose of both him and Ray Davis tonight. Miami’s front seven is the one decent part of their defense, however, and they profile more as a team to attack through the air vs on the ground. 

 

Score Prediction: Bills 34, Dolphins 27

Touchdown Prediction: Josh Palmer