Super Bowl LX Preview: Seahawks vs Patriots Trends, Picks & Predictions

 

Trends to Know

 

• Underdogs have covered the spread in five straight Super Bowls with outright wins in four of those five games 
• This is the first time since 2003 that two teams will face off in the Super Bowl that each missed the playoffs the year prior 
• Underdogs of 4.5 or more points have covered the spread at a 75% clip in the Super Bowl over the last 30 years – 16 game sample size 
• Super Bowl winning teams cover the spread over 85% of the time in the game’s history – if a team wins they are very likely to cover the spread as well 
• The coin toss has come up tails 31 times and heads 28 times in Super Bowl’s 
• Super Bowl MVPs history: 34 QBs, 8 WRs, 7 RBs, 11 other positions
• We’ve seen two WRs win Super Bowl MVP in the last 8 years, but no RB has won the award since 1998 

 

Nobody could have predicted this Super Bowl match-up preseason – both teams came into the year with SB odds higher than +5000 and as I noted above this is the first time since 2003 that we are getting two teams facing off that missed the playoffs the year prior. I think both of these are really good teams, but both are seemingly unproven. Drake Maye and Sam Darnold each recorded their first ever playoff win just a few short weeks ago and both have faced suspect schedules over the course of the season. New England faced essentially the easiest regular season schedule of the last 25 years and followed that up with getting to go against Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship game. Seattle faced a few more respectable opponents, the Rams namely, but also faced a really uninspiring schedule of opponents over the last two months. I don’t think any of this actually matters given that these are the two teams facing off for the Super Bowl but I just want to highlight anyone discrediting the Patriots due to their schedule should do the same for the Seahawks who faced Philip Rivers, Max Brosmer, Cam Ward and the Titans and some other middling teams heading into the play-offs. 

 

The story of this game has to be the defenses – everyone knows that Seattle’s defense has been dominant but the Patriots have been playing at an almost equally high level. Both of these teams would like to run the ball – yet both feature pretty elite run defenses so I’m not sure if they will be able to stick to that script. Drake Maye has taken a ton of heat for “underperforming” in the play-offs thus far but this was still – in my opinion – the MVP of the league this year. New England just simply doesn’t have the playmaking on the outside to threaten Seattle at all on the back end which fits into what Seattle wants to do anyways. Seattle plays a ton of 2 high safety and I would expect Maye to have to be a playmaker with his legs in this game. On the flip side this is one of the best defenses that Darnold has faced all year and he really has struggled in these spots against good units. The Rams secondary was abysmal down the stretch of the season so he was able to pick them apart a bit a few weeks ago. I don’t expect that to be the case tonight. Christian Gonzalez will have his hands full trying to cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba and I don’t expect you to ever truly stop JSN but I think the Patriots defense can play well in this spot. Seattle has really strong tackle play, but they can allow pressure up the middle and that has been when Darnold has struggled in the past. Milton Williams is a huge X factor for me in this game and I expect it to be a low scoring affair. 

 

When looking at the TD market – I want to take a shot on TreVeyon Henderson from New England. Everyone is noting all week how he only played a handful of snaps against the Broncos but I just don’t think that’s a 1:1 comparison to this game. For starters, there were terrible weather conditions in that game and the offense was sputtering. It’s true that Stevenson has been fed during this play-off run and I expect him to be the lead back tonight. I also, however, expect Henderson to play more with the extra week to prepare. It just makes sense, New England really doesn’t have much explosion on their offense and that’s exactly that Henderson can offer. In what should be a close game, one or two big plays could make the difference. Seattle allowed the most receptions and targets to opposing RB’s this season and that’s where I think we see Henderson come in tonight – especially in the screen game. TE and RB receiving production is where you want to look on the offenses facing them. 

 

We’ve seen Henderson house a screen in a big game before – taking one 70 yards to the house in the national championship vs Notre Dame during his time at Ohio State. I’m hoping for a similar big play tonight in what I think will be a close New England victory. 

 

Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Seahawks 23

Touchdown Prediction: TreVeyon Henderson