Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings: Week 9 MNF Best Bets & Predictions

Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings 

Game Line: Bills -3

Game Total: 45.5 

 

We finish off the Week 9 slate with an absolute banger between the Bills and Vikings. Both teams sit at 6-1 atop their divisions despite getting there in completely different ways. The Vikings are listed as home underdogs, with a solid total sitting at 45.5. Kick-off is set for 8:15 ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. Hopefully Joe Buck and Troy Aikman don’t try to fight each other on air tonight, let’s dive in!

 

As I noted above, these two teams show the same record but have achieved that in vastly different ways. Buffalo ranks first in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense while the Vikings lead the NFL in EPA/Play allowed on the defensive end. Buffalo has been able to outscore nearly everyone put in front of them, while the Vikings have had to rely on their elite defense coached by blitz-happy Brian Flores. Kyler Murray is “out” for this game due to injury but I’m willing to call a spade a spade and go with this as a soft-benching. Minnesota is certainly hoping Carson Wentz can provide some stability to the offense and show some signs of sustaining drives tonight in front of the home crowd. Overall, whenever we see these elite offensive vs defensive match-ups I tend to lean towards the offensive side. We have really set to see a match-up like this skew heavily towards the dominant defense in recent seasons and Josh Allen has been straight up dominant against the blitz to boot this season. This has me leaning towards the Buffalo Bills team total over 23.5 as my favorite bet of the night. Buffalo does have both tackles on the injury report, so that will be something to monitor when inactives are announced. 

 

This has to be the game for Justin Jefferson. He’s been held back by poor QB play all season, yet still has found the end zone five times and posted a YPRR above 2.00. He leads the team in red zone and end zone targets – and has averaged over 28% of the team’s targets in Wentz’s previous starts. Buffalo’s secondary has been leaky at times, and I’m expecting Wentz to lean on him heavily tonight especially if they are trailing. For what it’s worth, Jefferson has scored 46 career touchdowns – 29 of them coming at home. 

 

One way that Buffalo can counter the blitz-heavy nature of the Vikings defense is to utilize Ty Johnson’s ability out of the backfield. For example – look at last year's game vs the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranked top-five in blitz rate last season while Johnson went for 2-61-1 in that game receiving. 

 

Touchdown Prediction: Justin Jefferson

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Vikings 24