Steelers vs. Browns Week 4 Thursday Night Football Preview, Picks & Best Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Game Line: Steelers -2.5
Game Total: 38.5

We kick off Week 4 with an old-school AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. As always, you can expect a rowdy crowd in Cleveland tonight, and I say old-school because, well, just look at that total. Much has been made about the Steelers' lack of divisional success on Thursday Night Football ahead of this one, but I’m not so quick to buy in. Kickoff is set for 8:15 ET, and the game will be broadcast on Prime Video.

It’s always tough to win a road game in this division, but I simply can’t get there with this Browns team. They’ve ripped off two wins in a row, but that win over the Buccaneers doesn’t look as good right now as it did when it happened. On top of that, I’m not believing in this renaissance season for Deshaun Watson. Sure, the team is 2-1, but let’s dig a bit deeper. He still ranks 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Play per SumerSports, and he has 2 big-time throws in comparison to 6 turnover-worthy plays — casting some doubt on that 5:1 TD:INT ratio. This makes me particularly interested in his INT prop sitting at -122 odds.

This run game is not efficient whatsoever, and that makes me wonder how long it takes to start seeing Rocket Sanders cut into Quinshon Judkins' role. In terms of the pass catchers, I’m most interested in Denzel Boston and Harold Fannin from a prop perspective tonight. Pittsburgh has struggled more on the outside this season, and that’s why I think Boston could get going tonight. I also think we could see them continue to utilize Watson’s legs to aid that inefficient run game.

Overall, I’m not expecting much from this offense tonight, but I am looking for them to take some deep shots down the field to Boston, especially early in the game.

On the Steelers side of the ball, we saw that Aaron Rodgers is still capable of dissecting a defense even at his age, and I think this is another spot to do so. Cleveland ranks 5th-worst in the NFL through three games in terms of pressure% on opposing QBs. They have also run the most man coverage in the NFL, which sets up really well for DK Metcalf.

He’s been solid vs. man in his career, but it is more interesting to me because we can see him win on some of these contested catches, especially in the red zone. Metcalf has been one of the biggest underperformers in the NFL this season compared to his role, and this is a strong spot to see some of that regression hit.

Cleveland has allowed the highest average depth of target when targeted this season, along with the 7th-most raw Air Yards, while Metcalf leads the team in Air Yards and has a huge 13-yard aDOT. On paper, this matchup also sets up well for Roman Wilson because the Browns have operated as a slot funnel through three games.

Something I’m watching closely, however, is the role of Germie Bernard tonight. If you follow me, you know I’ve been high on him since his days at Washington, and he out-snapped Wilson by 10 last week after a ball deflected off Wilson’s hands for an INT. They play similar roles in the offense, and Bernard could be worth a look for live bets if he is outpacing Wilson early in the game. I also nibbled on his TD odds just in case.

I’m expecting Jaylen Warren to have a great game sans Rico Dowdle once again as well.

Touchdown Prediction: DK Metcalf
Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 13