Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos: Week 6 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Game Line: Seahawks -2.5
Game Total: 40.5

We kick off Week 6 with the Seattle Seahawks traveling to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos. There are some added elements of drama surrounding this game following an offseason rift between Mike Macdonald and Sean Payton. Seattle enters as a short road favorite, while the total sits at a relatively low 40.5. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET, with the game streaming live on Prime Video.

This sets up to be a boring game, in my opinion, between two good real-life teams that are far less exciting from a props and fantasy football perspective. Seattle has been lackluster offensively this season following the departure of Klint Kubiak, and they rank significantly worse in most offensive metrics despite averaging over 25 points per game.

The biggest issue is that they're a run-heavy offense that can't actually run the football. Zach Charbonnet still isn't able to play, Jadarian Price is out, and that leaves Emanuel Wilson and George Holani, neither of whom is exactly a model of efficiency.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in football, and personally, I'd look to attack Denver through the air tonight with both Pat Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga out in the secondary. That being said, we can never assume rational NFL coaching decisions, so I'm sure we'll see plenty more plodding from this Seahawks offense, with JSN occasionally breaking off big chunk plays.

On the Denver side of the ball, things have been pretty disastrous offensively. Sean Payton took back play-calling duties from Davis Webb last week, but we saw more of the same from this unit, with no real signs of improvement.

A lot of the blame falls on the shoulders of Bo Nix, in my opinion, who has struggled mightily this season in his return from a late-season injury. Nix ranks 28th in EPA per play among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays, according to SumerSports. He's also barely running the football, which can typically help offset poor passing performances, and that's really cratered this offense.

Historically, Nix has struggled against elite defensive schemes, and this will be one of the toughest matchups he faces all season. He ranks dead last among quarterbacks in success rate against pressure, according to Pro Football Focus, while the Seahawks generate pressure at a top-three rate overall.

I don't see the Broncos having much offensive success tonight, and Seattle -2.5 is far and away my favorite play in this game, backed by what I expect to be a big night from Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

I also want to keep going back to the AJ Barner well until we finally hit paydirt. Barner ranks second on the team in targets and is running routes on nearly 80% of passing plays. He still hasn't scored despite seeing multiple end-zone targets this season, and we get the added bonus of him being involved in the tush push when Seattle finds itself at the one-yard line.

Let's hope JSN draws a pass interference penalty against this banged-up Denver secondary and Barner gets the opportunity to plunge into the end zone.

Touchdown Prediction: AJ Barner
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Broncos 13