49ers vs. Rams Week 1 Prediction, Picks & Betting Preview

San Francisco @ Los Angeles (Australia) 

Line: Rams -4

Total: 48.5

 

After a banger first night in which we hit Eli Raridon to find the end zone, we are back for a divisional game being held in Australia between the 49ers and Rams. Kick-off is set for 8:35 ET while the game will be broadcast on Netflix. 

Divisional games are always tough in Week 1 – but we are in uncharted territory here in Melbourne Australia. Los Angeles has been dubbed a super team after their slew of off-season moves and around 5/1 to win the Super Bowl. San Francisco is hoping to bounce back after a down season in 2025 due to injuries – that apparently happen due to their practice facility. Overall, I think this is a spot where the 49ers can play spoiler to begin the Rams season. Taking divisional underdogs in Week 1 has been a profitable betting trend – while Kyle Shanahan has been elite at covering the spread as an underdog against Sean McVay as well. I do think the variance in this game is higher than normal due to the location – and that makes me want to lean more towards the underdog as well. 

 

San Francisco is going to look a lot different this season on offense – with Deebo Samuel back in the fold and George Kittle / Christian McCaffrey apparently healthy and ready to go. They also brought in Mike Evans and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling while Ricky Pearsall is out due to injury. Obviously the offense is going to funnel through CMC as usual but we should see Evans and Stribling see time on the outside while Deebo mans the slot. Last year, we wanted to attack this Chris Shula-led Rams defense over the middle of the field and that fits more into the Deebo/Kittle roles than it does Evans in my opinion. Stribling, on paper, has the best match-up of the bunch but how much he plays in his first game remains to be seen. I’m expecting Samuel to play a big role in his return to the 49ers mixing in with rush attempts and seeing schemed Red Zone looks as he always seems to do. 

 

On the Rams side of the offense, it’s more of the same with Matt Stafford leading this offense that will funnel through Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. We are hoping to see Blake Corum more involved this season – while our guy Terrance Ferguson has been the talk of Rams training camp and it sounds like he will be involved almost operating as the Rams WR3 behind Nacua and Adams. 

 

Another reason why I’m bullish on the 49ers in this spot is how different this team will look defensively compared to a season ago. For starters, they will have more capable LB play while Raheem Morris is taking over for Robert Saleh as the DC. I’ve always been a fan of Raheem Morris as a DC, and I think he is much better suited there than as a HC. He has familiarity with this Rams team and had a lot of success stopping their offense last season when he was in Atlanta. Kirk Cousins and the Falcons actually won that game, holding Stafford to one of his worst games of the season. Morris is much more aggressive blitzing than Robert Saleh, which could play a big factor in this game. He also has much better personnel than what was available to Saleh a year ago. Last year under Saleh with how poor the LB play was for SF, we were actively attacking the middle of the field with TD picks and prop bets. This year, I think we want to look more towards the outside WRs who can get down the field. Atlanta was bottom-five in avg depth of target faced a season ago so we could see Stafford hit some deep shots if he can survive the pass rush. This plays into more Davante Adams than Puka Nacua – and our guy Ferguson who I mentioned early. He led the team in aDOT last season. 

 

I’m expecting craziness in this game to be honest, and I’m picking the underdog to win outright tonight. 

 

Touchdown Prediction: Deebo Samuel

Score Prediction: SF 23, LAR 20