NFL Week 1: Patriots vs. Seahawks Betting Preview & Score Prediction

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -3.5 

Total: 44.5 

 

The NFL season is back, and I’m expecting big things coming off our biggest season yet both content wise and in the betting streets. We begin the season with a Super Bowl rematch. New England retooled their offense and are headed to Seattle to take on the defending Champion Seahawks on Wednesday night. Kick-off is set for 8:20 ET and the game will be broadcast on NBC. 

 

Overall, I think this line is telling us that while the names of the teams are carrying over from the final game of the season – the rosters are different. Seattle closed as bigger favorites on a neutral field in the Super Bowl than they will at home tonight. New England attempted to address their offensive line issues this off-season – as well as their lack of playmaking on the outside. Seattle is dealing with the loss of Klint Kubiak at OC, but Mike McDonald is one of the best Head Coaches in football and an elite defensive schemer. They lost some guys to FA this off-season on the back-end and may be without two starters in the secondary tonight due to injury – and I’m not sure it matters. Seattle proved they know how to affect Drake Maye last February, and I expect them to install a similar gameplan tonight. 

 

On the offensive side of the ball for New England, I’m going to be curious to see just how adamant they are in getting AJ Brown the ball in his debut. I would expect him to get looks early, likely the first target of the game, but I do think Seattle will be able to defend him well. The best way to attack Seattle through the air since McDonald took over is with Tight Ends. They have routinely funneled targets to the middle of the field which is going to benefit Hunter Henry, and Pop Douglas who I anticipate being the starting slot receiver. We have also seen rave reviews in camp for rookie TE Eli Raridon, who saw starter rest in the preseason games. We probably see a lot of 3-WR sets – but when NE goes to 12 personnel it will be Henry and Raridon. I love the value on Henry to find the end zone tonight after he led the team in RZ target% last season – but be on the lookout for the rookie Raridon to get in the mix around the red zone as well. 

 

What happens in the back-field will be interesting as well with TreVeyon Henderson not expected to play. There’s a good chance that Rhamondre Stevenson plays nearly every snap tonight and he should play a big role in the receiving game. New England can also utilize Maye more as a rusher – something I thought they should have done in the game this past February. 

 

Seattle’s offense is much more of an unknown for me with the change at playcaller. Two things I’ve learned the last three or four years is 1. Just how important offensive scheme matters in today’s NFL and 2. We don’t know how these offenses will operate with a first time play-caller regardless of who they learned under. New England did the best of anyone last year when it came to slowing down Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker is being replaced by rookie Jadarian Price – with George Holani filling in for the injured Zach Charbonnet. I think it could take some time for the offense to get going, and that’s why I’m leaning more towards this being a lower scoring game. The total feels appropriately set, but I could see it going under with some red zone stall outs on both sides. 

 

Touchdown Prediction: Hunter Henry

Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Patriots 20